for Thursday, 23 June 2011 [12:45 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday June 22 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, Twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS MEARI (FALCON).
MEARI (FALCON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MEARI [FALCON/07W/1105]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 23 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #006/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The large Tropical Storm MEARI (FALCON) has finally revealed its true center, which is located about 600 km to the east of Isabela, still well over the Philippine Sea. This broad system will continue to suck the SW Monsoon and bring occasional to widespread rains across Central and Southern Philippines (from Metro Manila down to Visayas and Mindanao).
Residents and visitors along Central & Northern Luzon, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands, Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MEARI (FALCON).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Thu June 23 2011
Location of Center: 16.7º N Lat 127.9º E Lon {Relocated}
Distance 1: 535 km (290 nm) NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 610 km (330 nm) NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 620 km (335 nm) ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 650 km (350 nm) ESE of Ilagan City
Distance 5: 685 km (370 nm) ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 775 km (418 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Taiwan-Yaeyama Area
CPA [ETA] to Taiwan: Sat Morning [8-10AM HKT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 380 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1,110 km (600 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12:00 PM PhT Thu June 23
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MEARI's (FALCON) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy on-&-off rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: SULU SEA, VISAYAS, MASBATE, NORTHERN PALAWAN & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MEARI (FALCON) is expected to track NNW across the warm Philippine Sea and will continue to intensify for the next 24-48 hours. MEARI shall reach Typhoon status (Category 1) by late Friday evening or Saturday morning while passing to the east of Taiwan or over the Yaeyama Island Chain. Below are the summary of the 2-day forecast for MEARI (FALCON). 
THIS EVENING (THU): Intensifying over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea as it tracks NNW...about 585 km East of Ilagan City, Isabela [8PM JUN 23: 17.2N 127.3E @ 85kph]. TOMORROW MORNING (FRI): Continues to intensify while passing well to the east of Cagayan Province (still over the Philippine Sea)...about 485 km East of Calayan Island, Cagayan [8AM JUN 24: 19.3N 126.1E @ 100kph]. TOMORROW EVENING (FRI): Almost a Category 1 Typhoon...passing well to the northeast of Batanes Group of Islands...about 340 km NE of Basco [8PM JUN 24: 21.9N 124.9E @ 110kph]. SATURDAY MORNING: Upgraded to a typhoon as it passes over Yaeyama Group of Islands, just to the east of Taiwan...turns more northerly...about 250 km East of Taipei, Taiwan [8AM JUN 25: 25.2N 124.1E @ 120kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. MEARI (FALCON) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some strengthening expected within the next 12 to 24 hours. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 195 kilometers (105 nautical miles) from the center. MEARI is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,110 kilometers (600 nautical miles). YAEYAMA GROUP OF ISLANDS: Over or very close to Ishigakijima [ETA: between 5:00-6:00 AM HKT Saturday, June 25]. EASTERN TAIWAN: About 250 km ENE of Taipei [ETA: between 8:00-9:00 AM HKT Saturday, June 25]. SUNDAY MORNING: Starts to decay as it begin transforming into an Extratropical Cyclone...moving across the East China Sea and Yellow Sea, just east of Shanghai, China [8AM JUNE 26: 31.4N 124.4E @ 100kph]. MONDAY MORNING: Becomes an Extratropical Cyclone as it makes landfall over Korea [8AM JUNE 27: 38.3N 126.6E @ 65kph]. TUESDAY MORNING: Passing Vladivostok, Russia as an Extratropical Cyclone [8AM JUNE 28: 45.5N 133.4E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MEARI's (FALCON) very large circulation continues to consolidate and strengthen while over the warm Philippine Sea with its southwestern outer rainbands affecting the Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS - over water (off North-Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading along the Bicol Region & Quezon Provinces. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 380 mm (high) along MEARI's (FALCON) western circulation (near Catanduanes). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) 
In Effect: ALBAY, CATANDUANES, CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, ISABELA, CAGAYAN, & THE CALAYAN-BABUYAN-BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides.
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) THU 23 JUNE POSITION: 15.4N 128.1E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 222114Z SSMIS IMAGE.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TS 07W REMAINS ELONGATED, WITH MULTIPLE
SMALL-SCALE VORTICES DEVELOPING AND ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER. DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLICALLY DEVELOP AND WANE NEAR THESE
VORTICES, THE MOST PROMINENT OF WHICH NOW LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE
BROADER CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES AND CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TS 07W HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST...(more info)
>> MEARI, meaning: Reflection of sound or echo. Name contributed by: DPR Korea.
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS MEARI (FALCON)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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