for Sunday, 19 June 2011 [7:38 AM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 3-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on EGAY!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday June 18 2011):
Currently issuing 3-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS 06W (EGAY).
06W (EGAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 06W [EGAY]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 19 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #009/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm 06W (EGAY) has decreased on its forward speed with a slight northward turn while still over the Philippine Sea. Enhanced Southwest Monsoon bringing occasional rains along Metro Manila, the western sections of Luzon and Visayas including Bicol Region, Palawan, Mindoro and Southern Tagalog Provinces.
Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of Central & Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 06W (EGAY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun June 19 2011
Location of Center: 16.0º N Lat 124.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 220 km (120 nm) NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 280 km (150 nm) East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 285 km (155 nm) NE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 4: 300 km (162 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 335 km (180 nm) ESE of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 6: 350 km (190 nm) ENE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 7: 365 km (197 nm) SE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 8: 425 km (230 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Cagayan-Batanes Area
Landfall [ETA] to N.Cagayan: Early Tomorrow [1-3AM PhT]
06-12hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 70 mm (Med)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6:00 AM PhT Sun June 19
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* 06W's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy on-&-off rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: SULU SEA, WESTERN VISAYAS, PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, BICOL incl. MASBATE, METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, SW LUZON, & MINDORO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow. Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs! PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
06W (EGAY) is expected to intensify slowly as it continues moving NNW turning more NW'ly within the next 24-48 hours, making landfall along the Northern Cagayan early tomorrow morning, and shall pass along the Balintang Channel, before moving out into the South China Sea tomorrow afternoon through the evening. 
THIS AFTERNOON (SUN): Intensifying as it nears the coastal areas of Isabela-Cagayan...about 215 km East of Cauayan, Isabela, PH [2PM JUN 19: 16.8N 123.7E @ 75kph]. TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (MON): Making landfall over Northern Cagayan...still intensifying...about 55 km East of Aparri, Cagayan, PH [2AM JUN 20: 18.2N 122.2E @ 85kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON (MON): Leaving the Balintang Channel after passing south of Calayan Island...strengthens to a Severe Tropical Storm...about 160 km NNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte, PH [2PM JUN 20: 19.6N 120.3E @ 95kph]. TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving across the South China Sea...about 335 km West of Basco, Batanes [2AM JUN 21: 20.5N 118.7E @ 95kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center. 06W (EGAY) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. NORTHERN CAGAYAN: Making landfall or over Escaparda Point [ETA: between 1:00-2:00 AM Tomorrow]. WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the coast of Southern China...starts losing strength [2AM JUNE 22: 21.8N 116.7E @ 85kph]. THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall along the Eastern Guangdong Province in China, just east of Hong Kong...downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) [2AM JUNE 23: 23.5N 115.3E @ 55kph]. FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Just an area of low pressure, dissipating just north of Hong Kong [2AM JUNE 24: 25.3N 114.5E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
06W's (EGAY) circulation still sheared with the low-level circulation center (LLCC) not aligned with the rain-cloud convection. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS - still over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-85 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Quirino, Northern Bicol, & Polillo Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 06-12HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 25 mm (low rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 70 mm (medium) near the center of 06W (EGAY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
The new Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA/1008 MB) remains over the Caroline Islands, SW of Guam with little change in organization. Its possible center was located near lat 7.5N lon 141.6E...about 1665 km East of Mindanao, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...drifting WNW slowly. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains @ 20% [Low]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
In Effect: POLILLO IS., QUEZON, AURORA, CAGAYAN, ISABELA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, CALAYAN-BABUYAN IS., IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE, KALINGA, ABRA, APAYAO & ILOCOS NORTE.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides.
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SUN 19 JUNE POSITION: 15.5N 124.9E.
*TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-
NUMBERS OF 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY. TD 06W
CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TO THE NORTH OF TS 06W HAVE PREVENTED THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING
OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS DESPITE PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER EAST
OF LUZON AND STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. DUE TO PERSISTENT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TS 06W
REMAINS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.
CERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW
SYNOPTIC CYCLES, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE NOW DIVERGING INTO TWO POSSIBLE
TRACK SCENARIOS. AN INITIALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS DEPICTED BY THE MOST RECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NOGAPS, GFS, GFDN, UKMET, AND ECMWF MODELS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THIS SCENARIO, GIVEN ANALYSIS OF A
CONTINUOUS STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EXPECTATION THAT THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER,
JGSM AND THE PAST ITERATION OF THE ECMWF MODEL SUGGEST A MORE
POLEWARD PATH TOWARD TAIWAN IS POSSIBLE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS
POLEWARD TRACK REMAINS AS AN ALTERNATE TRACK SCENARIO. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND REDUCTION IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION, PARTICULARLY IF THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF TS 06W TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN LUZON. THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SUBJECTIVELY
WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WESTERN MODEL GROUPING...(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**N/A**
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 06-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS 06W (EGAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment