for Tuesday, 21 June 2011 [12:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 20 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TD 06W (EGAY).
06W (EGAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W [EGAY]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 017
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Tue 21 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #018/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 06W (EGAY) maintained its WSW movement during the past 6 hours...still trying to reorganize.
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Southern & Southwestern China should closely monitor the progress of 06W (EGAY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Tue June 21 2011
Location of Center: 19.4º N Lat 115.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 325 km (175 nm) SSE of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 350 km (188 nm) SSE of Macau
Distance 3: 485 km (262 nm) East of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 4: 525 km (283 nm) ESE of Zhanjiang, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Southern China
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM HKT Tue June 21
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)*
06W (EGAY) is expected to remain a depression throughout the 2-day forecast...will return to its usual WNW path. This system shall make landfall west of Hong Kong by Wednesday evening (June 22). 
THIS EVENING (TUE): Turns WNW across the northern portion of the South China Sea...about 240 km SSE of Hong Kong, China [8PM JUN 21: 20.2N 114.7E @ 55kph]. TOMORROW MORNING (WED): Weakens slightly as it moves closer to the coast of Western Guangdong, China...about 145 km SSW of Macau, China [8AM JUN 22: 20.9N 113.4E @ 45kph]. TOMORROW EVENING (WED): Prepares to make landfall...just offshore along Western Guangdong, in between the cities of Macau (to the east) and Zhanjiang (to the west)...about 170 km WSW of Macau, China [8PM JUN 22: 21.6N 112.1E @ 45kph]. THURSDAY MORNING: Over Guangxi Province, China after making landfall along Western Guangdong...about 230 km West of Macau, China [8AM JUN 23: 22.2N 110.7E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 06W (EGAY) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy on-&-off rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: COASTAL AREAS OF ZAMBALES, BATAAN & PANGASINAN. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
06W's (EGAY) circulation still poorly organized due to unfavorable upper-level environment aloft. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea). Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (high) near the center of 06W (EGAY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) TUE 21 JUNE POSITION: 19.7N 116.3E.
*RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG A CONVERGENT INFLOW BOUNDARY
ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BUT
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND THE NORTHERN SIDE. A
202300Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS A SIMILAR DEPICTION WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH WITH VERY LITTLE DEFINITION OF THE CIRCULATION NEAR THE
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS THE SYSTEM UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENT FLOW AND
UNDER A MODERATE AMOUNT (20KTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ASIATIC
HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. POSITION IS BASED ON THE
POSITION FIX FROM PGTW, AND INTENSITY WAS HELD A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
THE PGTW FIX. THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY WAS DETERMINED TO BE
SLIGHTLY UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY DUE TO THE
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION BY THE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE 20/12Z
POSITION WAS DOWNGRADED FROM A 35KT TS POSITION TO A 30KT TD
POSITION...(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT JTWC / WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**N/A**
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 06W (EGAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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