for Friday, 17 June 2011 [7:12 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday June 17 2011):
Now issuing 3-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on the newly-formed TD 06W (EGAY) located off the Philippine Sea.
06W (EGAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W [EGAY]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Fri 17 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #001/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The tropical disturbance (LPA) east of Northern Mindanao has strengthened to Tropical Depression 06W (EGAY)...threatens the Eastern Coasts of Visayas and Luzon particularly Samar and Bicol Region.
Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of Luzon & Visayas should closely monitor the progress of 06W (EGAY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri June 17 2011
Location of Center: 9.6º N Lat 129.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 440 km (238 nm) East of Surigao City
Distance 2: 500 km (270 nm) SE of Borongan City
Distance 3: 525 km (285 nm) ESE of Tacloban City
Distance 4: 730 km (393 nm) SE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 815 km (440 nm) SE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Extreme Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Bicol: Sunday Morning [2AM-2PM PhT]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 08 ft (2.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6:00 AM PhT Fri June 17
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* 06W's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
SARIKA (DODONG) is expected to intensify into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours, and shall weaken into a tropical depression by 48 hours - due to unfavorable conditions aloft.
THIS AFTERNOON (FRI): Intensifying slightly while still over the Philippine Sea...about 385 km ENE of Surigao City, Northern Mindanao, PH [2PM JUN 17: 10.3N 129.0E @ 55kph]. TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SAT): Shall become a Tropical Storm (TS) as it turns more towards the NW while over the Philippine Sea...about 305 km East of Borongan City, Eastern Samar, PH [2AM JUN 18: 11.5N 128.2E @ 65kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SAT): Maintains its minimal Tropical Storm strength...approaching the East Coast of Bicol Region...about 285 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar, PH [2PM JUN 18: 12.7N 127.2E @ 65kph]. SUNDAY EARLY MORNING (SUN): Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) due to poor-upper level environment...about 165 km East of Pandan, Catanduanes, PH [2AM JUN 19: 13.9N 125.7E @ 55kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. SARIKA (DODONG) is a weak Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. CATANDUANES: about 120 km NE of Pandan or 155 km NE of Virac [ETA: between 8:00-11:00 AM Sunday, June 19]. MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further as it passes some 100 km to the east of Isabela [2AM JUNE 20: 16.7N 123.6E @ 45kph]. TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipates into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) while in the vicinity of the Batanes Group of Islands [2AM JUNE 21: 19.9N 122.0E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
06W's (EGAY) circulation remains weak and still consolidating as of this time...with most of its rain-cloud convection displaced NW of its low-level center. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting Catanduanes, Samar, Leyte, Bohol, & Northeastern Mindanao. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 17 JUNE POSITION: 9.0N 129.5E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
SHALLOW BANDING FORMING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A
161656Z AMSU PASS SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO
THE WEST OF THE LLCC ALONG WITH FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. A 161303Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY WELL FORMED,
SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION WITH A CLOSED RING OF 20KT WINDS AND 25KT
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) THAT WAS IN THE
AREA HAS MIGRATED TO THE NORTH OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THIS HAS
ALLOWED THE UPPER LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO MOVE BACK OVER THE
SYSTEM AND IMPROVE OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS STEERING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING THE STR AND ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE
A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, BUT AS THE TROUGH PASSES THE STR WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND PUSH THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS NEAR
TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, IT WILL MOVE BACK UNDER THE
TUTT AND THIS WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
DISSIPATE BY 96 HRS...(more)
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**N/A**
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 12-18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
NOT YET AVAILABLE
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 06W (EGAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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