for Monday, 20 June 2011 [7:00 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 20 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TD 06W (EGAY).
06W (EGAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W [EGAY]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 20 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #015/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 06W (EGAY) slightly disorganized as it moves Westward across the South China Sea.
Residents and visitors along Southern China should closely monitor the progress of 06W (EGAY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon June 20 2011
Location of Center: 20.6º N Lat 118.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 350 km (190 nm) SSE of Shantou, China
Distance 2: 365 km (197 nm) NW of Laoag City
Distance 3: 395 km (213 nm) West of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 450 km (242 nm) ESE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Southern China
CPA [ETA] to Hong Kong: Wed Afternoon [12-2PM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 75 mm (Med)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Mon June 20
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* 06W's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy on-&-off rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: SULU SEA, WESTERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA, WESTERN VISAYAS, PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, & ROMBLON. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
06W (EGAY) is expected to remain a depression throughout the 2-day forecast, while moving West to WNW. This system shall make landfall west of Hong Kong by late Wednesday afternoon (June 22). 
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (TUE): Moving westward across the northern portion of the South China Sea...about 305 km SSE of Shantou City, China [2AM JUN 21: 20.7N 117.1E @ 55kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON (TUE): Slows down while turning slightly WNW...moving closer to the coast of Guangdong Province, China...about 210 km SE of Hong Kong, China [2PM JUN 21: 21.0N 115.8E @ 55kph]. WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the coast of Guangdong...about 95 km SSE of Hong Kong, China [2AM JUN 22: 21.4N 114.5E @ 55kph]. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Prepares to make landfall along Guangdong's Coast...about 45 km SSE of Macau, China [2PM JUN 22: 21.8N 113.7E @ 45kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 06W (EGAY) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. HONG KONG AREA: about 75 km SSW of Hong Kong [ETA: 12:00 PM to 2:00 PM Wednesday, June 22]. MACAU AREA: about 25 km SSW of Macau [ETA: 2:00 PM to 5:00 PM Wednesday, June 22]. THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipated as an area of low pressure off Guangdong Province - well to the West of Macau [2PM JUNE 23: 22.6N 111.9E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
06W's (EGAY) circulation still sheared with the low-level circulation center (LLCC) not aligned with the rain-cloud convection. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea). Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 75 mm (medium) near the center of 06W (EGAY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) MON 20 JUNE POSITION: 20.4N 119.0E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
CONFIRMS THE TRACK TOOK A WESTWARD BEND AS TD 06W CLEARED THE LUZON
STRAIT. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS LOST ITS
STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS NOW BEING DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF
SOUTHEASTERLIES ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
NORTHEASTERLIES FLOWING THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT. TD 06W SHOWED A
MILD BOOST IN CONVECTION AS IT ENTERED THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
RECEIVED AN INFLUX OF THE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLIES, BUT CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BE QUICKLY DISPLACED BY 15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND THE SYSTEM SHOWS A LACK OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE. A 200046Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS LITTLE
LOW LEVEL BANDING AND THE 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THE ONLY DEEP
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ANALYSIS IS BASED ON SEVERAL SURFACE REPORTS PROXIMAL TO THE LLCC
AND A 200036Z ASCAT PASS, AS THE SPOTTY CONVECTION AND CONSISTENT
SHEAR ARE MAKING SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES LESS INDICATIVE OF
ACTUAL INTENSITY. ALONG-TRACK VWS AND SST (29 DEGREES) WILL REMAIN
STEADY THROUGH TAU 36, THUS TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A STEADY
STATE UNTIL IT APPROACHES MAINLAND CHINA. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING
VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL.
ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SWING THE TRACK FURTHER
SOUTHWARD WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN, THEY ARE ALSO COMING INTO
TIGHTER ALIGNMENT REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST STAYS JUST POLEWARD OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR ONE OUTLIER
(EGRR)...(more)
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RECENT JTWC / WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**N/A**
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 06W (EGAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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