Bushman's Typhoon Blog: LPA 99W [Pre-FALCON]

for Monday, 20 June 2011 [2:30 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 20 2011):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on LPA 99W (Pre-FALCON).

99W (Pre-FALCON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 40 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 35 km/hr

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W [Pre-FALCON]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Mon 20 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Formation Alert/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)

The new Tropical Disturbance [LPA] tagged as 99W (Pre-FALCON) over the Caroline Islands has quickly entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...may likely become a Tropical Depression within the next 06 to 24 hours.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol & Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 99W (Pre-FALCON).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 2:00 PM PhT Mon June 20 2011
Location of Center: 11.0º N Lat 134.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 985 km (532 nm) ESE of Borongan City
Distance 2: 1080 km (583 nm) ESE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 3: 1140 km (615 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 1250 km (675 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 40 kph (22 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 55 kph (30 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Luzon
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: LPA
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): -- ft (-.- m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
JTWC TrackMap (for Public): 11:00 AM PhT Mon June 20

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) MON 20 JUNE POSITION: 10.8N 135.5E.
*THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
139.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 135.5E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING NEAR A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN A 192133Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE
DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON INCREASING
ORGANIZATION AND VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH...(more)

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT JTWC TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

**N/A**
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-2 "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

***N/A***

> Image source:  Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

***N/A***

> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on LPA 99W (Pre-FALCON)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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