for Monday, 20 June 2011 [12:45 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday June 18 2011):
Currently issuing 3-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight or 3:00 AM) on TS 06W (EGAY).
06W (EGAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 06W [EGAY]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 012
12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Mon 20 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #012/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm 06W (EGAY) has started crossing Luzon Strait...now traversing the Babuyan Islands. Enhanced SW Monsoon bringing occasional rains across most parts of the Philippines.
Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Southeastern-Southern China should closely monitor the progress of 06W (EGAY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PhT Mon June 20 2011
Location of Center: 19.1º N Lat 122.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 85 km (45 nm) ESE of Calayan Island
Distance 2: 100 km (55 nm) NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 160 km (85 nm) SSE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 180 km (97 nm) NNE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 205 km (110 nm) NE of Laoag City
Distance 6: 520 km (280 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Calayan-South China Sea Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
JTWC TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 PM PhT Sun June 19
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
06W (EGAY) is expected to intensify slowly as it turns more WNW-ward within the next 24-48 hours, moving across Bashi Channel and into the South China Sea tomorrow. It will be approaching the coast of Southern China by Tuesday evening. 
THIS MORNING (MON): Moving away from the Bashi Channel as it turns more WNW...about 115 km WSW of Basco, Batanes, PH [8AM JUN 20: 20.1N 121.0E @ 75kph]. THIS EVENING (MON): Moving into the northern part of the South China Sea...gaining strength...about 210 km SSW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [8PM JUN 20: 21.0N 119.2E @ 85kph]. TOMORROW MORNING (TUE): Moving closer towards the coast of Southern China...about 235 km SE of Shantou City, China [8AM JUN 21: 21.5N 117.7E @ 85kph]. TOMORROW EVENING (TUE): Approaching the coast of Eastern Guangdong Province (Southern China)...weakening rapidly...about 220 km ESE of Hong Kong, China [8PM JUN 21: 21.9N 116.3E @ 65kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. 06W (EGAY) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. WEDNESDAY EVENING: Making landfall over Eastern Guangdong - just east of Hong Kong...downgraded to a Low Pressure Area [8PM JUNE 22: 23.1N 114.9E @ 35kph]. THURSDAY EVENING: Dissipated over land (just NNW of Hong Kong) [8PM JUNE 23: 23.5N 113.6E @ 20kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy on-&-off rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: SULU SEA, REST OF LUZON incl. METRO MANILA, VISAYAS, PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, ROMBLON, BICOL REGION incl. MASBATE. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
06W's (EGAY) circulation still sheared with the low-level circulation center (LLCC) not aligned with the rain-cloud convection. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: DEVELOPING INNER RAINBANDS - still over water (off Balintang Channel)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-85 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Northern Luzon. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 350 mm (medium) near the center of 06W (EGAY) or along Extreme Northern Luzon from Ilocos Norte up to Cagayan. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA/1007 MB) over the Caroline Islands, SW of Guam continues to organize. Its possible center was located near lat 8.9N lon 136.6E...about 1130 km East of Northern Mindanao, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving WNW slowly. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains @ 40% [Medium]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) 
In Effect: CAGAYAN, CALAYAN-BABUYAN-BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS, APAYAO & ILOCOS NORTE.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides.
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 PM (12 GMT) SUN 19 JUNE POSITION: 18.7N 122.8E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (SIX), LOCATED 530 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TS 06W HAS ENTERED INTO A REGION OF MORE FAVORABLE ALONG-
TRACK ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MILD
INTENSIFICATION. DESPITE THE INCREASED CONVECTION, ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILLS SHOWS A SYSTEM THAT IS STRUGGLING AGAINST
THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF 15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
SUPPRESSED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE
191200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEAL A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) EXTENDING ALONG THE 20TH LATITUDE FROM
THE MID-PACIFIC ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ALTHOUGH THE
TUTT IS CREATING A SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM,
LINKAGE BETWEEN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIVING OVER EASTERN CHINA AND
THE OUTFLOW FROM TS 06W IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR, AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF
SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A
190918Z SSMIS IMAGE VERIFIES THAT THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION GENERATED
BY THE STORM IS DUE TO THE LIFT PROVIDED BY LAND INTERACTION WITH
THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED
ON A COMBINATION OF SUBJECTIVE AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REPORTS FROM STATIONS OVER NORTHEAST LUZON AND THE BUBAYAN ISLANDS.
TS 06W CONTINUES TO STEER ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO MAJOR
ANTICYCLONES OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE BONIN ISLANDS. THE WEAKNESS
BETWEEN THE TWO ANTICYCLONES IS BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AS A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CHINA...(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT US JTWC TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**N/A**
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS 06W (EGAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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