for Friday, 10 June 2011 [1:00 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday June 10 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS SARIKA (DODONG). The SMS Updates has ended.
SARIKA (DODONG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM SARIKA [DODONG/05W/1103]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 10 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #005/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm SARIKA (DODONG) has accelerated rapily NNW and left the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...on its way to Southeastern China. Its Easternmost rainbands are no longer affecting Western Luzon.
Residents and visitors along Southern & SE China should closely monitor the progress of SARIKA (DODONG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri June 10 2011
Location of Center: 19.9º N Lat 117.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 305 km (213 nm) SSE of Shantou City
Distance 2: 405 km (208 nm) NW of Laoag City
Distance 3: 410 km (220 nm) SE of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 505 km (273 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 720 km (390 nm) NNW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Southeastern China
CPA [ETA] to Shantou: Sat Morning Jun 11 [6-8AM HKT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 330 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) / Small-Avg
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 08 ft (2.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM HKT Fri June 10
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)*
SARIKA (DODONG) is expected to turn more Northward to NNE-ward across the South China Sea for the next 2 days...and will make landfall along Southeastern China or off Fujian Province tomorrow morning, Saturday June 11, and dissipate over land.
THIS EVENING (FRI): Approaching the coast of Fujian Province (China)...about 240 km SSE of Shantou City, China [8PM JUN 10: 21.3N 117.2E @ 75kph]. TOMORROW MORNING (SAT): Makes landfall over Fujian Province...about 55 km ENE of Shantou City, China [8AM JUN 11: 23.7N 117.1E @ 75kph]. TOMORROW EVENING (SAT): Downgraded into Tropical Depression (TD)...dissipating across Fujian Province...about 125 km NW of Xiamen City, China [8PM JUN 11: 25.4N 117.5E @ 55kph]. SUNDAY MORNING: Dissipated over land...about 135 km NW of Fuzhou City, China [8AM JUN 12: 27.1N 118.5E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. SARIKA (DODONG) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 30 kilometers (15 nautical miles) from the center. SARIKA is an average/small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
SARIKA's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: Southern part of the SOUTH CHINA SEA. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow. FUJIAN, CHINA: about 40 km East of Shantou City or 330 km ENE of Hong Kong [ETA: between 6:00-8:00 AM Tomorrow].
SARIKA's (DODONG) circulation has become slightly disorganized with its low-level circulation center (LLCC) moving ahead of its thick-rain convective circulation while still over the South China Sea. Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...but will reach the Southeastern Coast of China (Fujian-Eastern Guangdong Area) later tonight. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 330 mm (high) near the center of SARIKA (DODONG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 10 JUNE POSITION: 18.9N 117.6E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 092218Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 25 TO 30
KNOTS BASED ON THE OVERALL BANDING STRUCTURE IN RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED EXTREMELY FAVORABLE,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE INHIBITED BY 20 KNOTS OF NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TS SARIKA IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE...(more)
>> SARIKA, meaning: A singing bird. Name contributed by:Cambodia.
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RECENT JTWC / WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS SARIKA (DODONG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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