for Friday, 10 June 2011 [6:18 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday June 10 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter, SMS and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS SARIKA (DODONG).
SARIKA (DODONG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM SARIKA [DODONG/05W/1103]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Fri 10 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #004/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
05W (DODONG) is now internationally known as SARIKA as it attains Tropical Storm status...heading north-northwestward (NNW) slowly across the South China Sea - in the direction of Southeastern China (Eastern Guangdong-Fujian Area). Its Eastern Outer Rainbands continues to affect Western Luzon.
Residents and visitors along the coastal areas of NW Luzon, Southern & SE China should closely monitor the progress of SARIKA (DODONG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri June 10 2011
Location of Center: 17.5º N Lat 117.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 275 km (148 nm) West of Vigan City
Distance 2: 305 km (165 nm) WSW of Laoag City
Distance 3: 320 km (173 nm) WNW of Baguio City
Distance 4: 480 km (260 nm) NW of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 645 km (348 nm) SE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Southeastern China
CPA [ETA] to Shantou: Sat Morning Jun 11 [6-8AM HKT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 300 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) / Small-Avg
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 08 ft (2.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM HKT Fri June 10
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)*
SARIKA (DODONG) is expected to continue intensifying as it moves NNW to Northward across the South China Sea for the next 2 days. This system is forecast to make landfall along Southeastern China or off Eastern Guangdong-Fujian Area on Saturday morning, June 11th.
THIS AFTERNOON (FRI): Continuing moving NNW as it slightly intensify while over the South China Sea...about 525 km West of Basco, Batanes [2PM JUN 10: 20.1N 117.0E @ 75kph]. TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SAT): Approaching Eastern Guangdong-Fujian Area as it bears down along the coast...about 115 km South of Shantou City, China [2AM JUN 11: 22.4N 116.5E @ 85kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SAT): Over land (Fujian Province), after making landfall near Shantou City...downgraded to Tropical Depression (TD)...about 135 km North of Shantou City, China [2PM JUN 11: 24.6N 116.5E @ 55kph]. SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Disspated over mainland China [2AM JUN 12: 27.2N 117.5E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. SARIKA (DODONG) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 30 kilometers (15 nautical miles) from the center. SARIKA is an average/small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
SARIKA's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, MINDORO, CALAMIAN GROUP, ROMBLON, MARINDUQUE, PALAWAN & PARTS OF METRO MANILA. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow. FUJIAN, CHINA: about 20 km East of Shantou City or 270 km ENE of Hong Kong [ETA: between 6:00-8:00 AM Tomorrow].
SARIKA's (DODONG) circulation has become more compact while over the South China Sea...continuing to slowly intensify. Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across the Western Coast of Pangasinan-Zambales-La Union-Ilocos Sur. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 300 mm (high) near the center of SARIKA (DODONG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 10 JUNE POSITION: 17.8N 117.8E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 091628Z 37 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES A FORMATIVE BANDING EYE FEATURE WITH A MAJORITY OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE TRMM MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, KNES, AND PGTW RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS,
BASED ON A 091351Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
AND 40 NOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. TS SARIKA IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
POLEWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>28
DEGREES CELSIUS), MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL OVER THE LUZON STRAIGHT AND AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF HONG KONG
BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER LAND. REMNANTS
OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY MID-
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK. WBAR AND GFDN REMAIN THE
WESTERN OUTLIERS, TRACKING THE SYSTEM MORE TOWARD HONG KONG, AND
JGSM AND GFS REMAIN THE EASTERN OUTLIERS DEPICTING A SHARPER RE-
CURVATURE. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST...(more)
>> SARIKA, meaning: A bird. Name contributed by:Cambodia.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT JTWC / WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS SARIKA (DODONG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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