for Friday, 17 June 2011 [12:15 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday June 17 2011):
Now issuing 3-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on the newly-formed TD 06W (EGAY) located off the Philippine Sea.
06W (EGAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W [EGAY]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 17 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #002/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 06W (EGAY) still slightly disorganized as it moved NW during the past 3 hours...still a threat to the eastern coast of Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region.
Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of Luzon & Visayas should closely monitor the progress of 06W (EGAY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri June 17 2011
Location of Center: 10.4º N Lat 128.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 355 km (192 nm) ENE of Surigao City
Distance 2: 385 km (208 nm) ESE of Borongan City
Distance 3: 415 km (223 nm) ESE of Tacloban City
Distance 4: 600 km (323 nm) SE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 695 km (375 nm) SE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Extreme Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Bicol: Sunday Morning [2AM-2PM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 250 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 08 ft (2.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12:00 PM PhT Fri June 17
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* 06W's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
06W (EGAY) is expected to slightly turn NW and intensify into a tropical storm within the next 24 to 48 hours, passing to the NE of Bicol Region on Sunday, June 19.
THIS EVENING (FRI): Intensified slightly while still over the Philippine Sea...about 340 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar, PH [8PM JUN 17: 11.0N 128.7E @ 55kph]. TOMORROW MORNING (SAT): Turns more northwestward with no change in strength...about 350 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar, PH [8AM JUN 18: 12.4N 127.8E @ 55kph]. TOMORROW EVENING (SAT): Near Tropical Storm strength as it approaches the East Coast of Catanduanes Island...about 270 km East of Virac, Catanduanes, PH [8PM JUN 18: 13.5N 126.7E @ 55kph]. SUNDAY MORNING (SUN): Upgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) while passing well to the NE of Bicol Region...about 160 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes, PH [8AM JUN 19: 14.8N 125.5E @ 65kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. SARIKA (DODONG) is a weak Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. CATANDUANES: about 155 km NE of Pandan or 195 km NE of Virac [ETA: between 8:00-11:00 AM Sunday, June 19]. MONDAY MORNING: Maintaining its minimal TS strength as it passes more or less 150 km to the east of Isabela-Cagayan Area [8AM JUNE 20: 17.8N 123.9E @ 65kph]. TUESDAY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it passes close to the Batanes Group of Islands [8AM JUNE 21: 21.0N 122.3E @ 75kph]. WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) while crossing Taiwan [8AM JUNE 22: 24.4N 120.8E @ 55kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
06W's (EGAY) circulation remains weak and still consolidating as of this time...with most of its rain-cloud convection displaced West & NW of its low-level center. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Camarines Sur, Masbate, Catanduanes, Sorsogon, Albay, Samar, Leyte, Bohol, & Northeastern Mindanao. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (high) near the center of 06W (EGAY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 17 JUNE POSITION: 9.7N 129.3E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION FLARING AT THE CENTER AND
BECOMING SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST. A 162344Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS ONE
SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC.
THESE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS
ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS EARLIER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AXIS
AND UNDER 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST...(more)
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**N/A**
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 06W (EGAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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