for Wednesday, 22 June 2011 [1:00 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday June 22 2011):
Now issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS 07W (FALCON). Please be advised that T2K Public Advisories are taken from the United States' Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and/or Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), with real-time extrapolation used in depicting the exact location of tropical cyclones.
07W (FALCON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 07W [FALCON]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Wed 22 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #002/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The large 07W (FALCON) has intensified into a Tropical Storm as it moves quickly towards the NW, across the Philippine Sea...latest forecast track now calls for a possible Taiwan landfall in 72 hours.
Residents and visitors along Bicol & Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 07W (FALCON).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Wed June 22 2011
Location of Center: 14.0º N Lat 128.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 410 km (220 nm) East of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 415 km (225 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 445 km (240 nm) ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 475 km (257 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 520 km (280 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Batanes-Taiwan
Landfall [ETA] to Taiwan: Fri Evening [10-11PM HKT]
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 110 mm (Mod-High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Wed June 22
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* 07W's (FALCON) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy on-&-off rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: SULU SEA, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
07W (FALCON) is expected to maintain its NW track across the warm Philippine Sea and continue intensifying for the next 24-48 hours. 07W shall reach Typhoon status (Category 1) by Friday, June 24. Below are the summary of the 2-day forecast for 07W (FALCON). 
THIS EVENING (WED): Intensifying rapidly off the Philippine Sea...about 310 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes [8PM JUN 22: 15.1N 126.9E @ 85kph]. TOMORROW MORNING (THU): Near typhoon strength as it passes well to the east of Northern Luzon (over Philippine Sea)...about 300 km ESE of Palanan Bay, Isabela [8AM JUN 23: 16.8N 125.3E @ 100kph]. TOMORROW EVENING (THU): Passing well to the east of Extreme Northern Luzon...about 180 km ENE of Northern Cagayan [8PM JUN 23: 18.7N 123.9E @ 110kph]. FRIDAY MORNING: Upgraded to a Typhoon as it passes close to the Batanes Group of Islands...about 70 km NE of Basco, Batanes [8AM JUN 24: 20.8N 122.6E @ 120kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. 07W (FALCON) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening expected within the next 24 hours. BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS: About 70 km NE of Basco [ETA: between 8:00 AM-9:00 AM HKT Friday, June 24]. EASTERN TAIWAN: About 30 km SSW of Hualien City [ETA: between 2:00 AM-3:00 PM HKT Saturday, June 25]. SATURDAY MORNING: Downgraded to a severe tropical storm...over NW Taiwan (Landfall) [8AM JUNE 25: 24.6N 121.1E @ 100kph]. SUNDAY MORNING: Second landfall - over Eastern China, just to the north of Wenzhou City [8AM JUNE 26: 28.9N 120.9E @ 95kph]. MONDAY MORNING: Downgraded to Tropical Storm strength moving across the Yellow Sea [8AM JUNE 27: 34.1N 122.4E @ 75kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
07W's (FALCON) broad circulation continues to consolidate and strengthen while over the warm Philippine Sea with its western outer rainbands now affecting the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: DEVELOPING INNER RAINBANDS - over water (off Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-85 kph) can be expected along these bands. WESTERN RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading along the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 110 mm (moderate-high) near the center of 07W (FALCON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) WED 22 JUNE POSITION: 13.6N 128.5E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING REPRESENTS TWO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM, AND THE TRACK HAS
SHIFTED TO THE WEST, NOW MAKING LANDFALL IN TAIWAN...(more info)
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**N/A**
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> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 12-18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS 07W (FALCON)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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