for Tuesday, 21 June 2011 [4:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 20 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TD HAIMA (EGAY).
HAIMA (EGAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAIMA [EGAY/06W/1104]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 018
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 21 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #019/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression HAIMA (EGAY) weakens slightly but may still reintensify as it remains over the South China Sea.
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Southern & Southwestern China should closely monitor the progress of 06W (EGAY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue June 21 2011
Location of Center: 19.1º N Lat 114.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 345 km (185 nm) South of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 360 km (195 nm) SSE of Macau
Distance 3: 430 km (232 nm) East of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 4: 495 km (267 nm) SE of Zhanjiang, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Hainan-West Guangdong
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM HKT Tue June 21
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* HAIMA's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
06W (EGAY) is expected to remain a weak depression throughout the 2-day forecast...will return to its usual WNW path. This system shall make landfall near Zhanjiang City by early Thursday morning (June 23). 
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (WED): Turns WNW across the northern portion of the South China Sea...about 310 km South of Macau, China [2AM JUN 22: 19.4N 113.6E @ 45kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WED): Approaching the coast of Eastern Hainan...about 210 km East of Haikou, Hainan Island [2PM JUN 22: 20.1N 112.3E @ 45kph]. THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Just offshore along Western Guangdong, prepares to make landfall...about 70 km ESE of Zhanjiang City, China [2AM JUN 23: 21.0N 111.1E @ 45kph]. THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Just an area of low pressure, dissipated over Guangxi Province, China...about 75 km NW of Zhanjiang City, China [2PM JUN 23: 21.7N 109.9E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 06W (EGAY) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. ZHANJIANG CITY AREA: about 10 km NE of Zhanjiang City [ETA: 6:00 AM to 8:00 AM Thursday, June 23].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy on-&-off rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: COASTAL AREAS OF ZAMBALES, BATAAN, PANGASINAN, LA UNION, ILOCOS PROVINCES. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
HAIMA's (EGAY) circulation trying to reorganize while over the South China Sea. Most of its intense raincloud convection situated to the south and southwest of the low-level circulation center (LLCC). Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea). Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (high) near the center of 06W (EGAY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 21 JUNE POSITION: 19.0N 115.0E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS THE
MAIN CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT
ON A 210507Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWHING SHALLOW CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF A BROAD LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENT FLOW AND MODERATE 20-KT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. THE STEERING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT EAST ALLOWING TD 06W TO TRACK ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY AND EVENTUALLY MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN CHINA JUST NORTH
OF HAINAN. DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, 06W IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TD BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER LAND. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. NOGAPS IS THE
RIGHTMOST OUTLIER AND EGRR IS TO THE LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS
FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS...(more)
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RECENT JTWC / WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**N/A**
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> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 06W (EGAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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