for Sunday, 19 June 2011 [1:30 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday June 18 2011):
Currently issuing 3-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS 06W (EGAY).
06W (EGAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 06W [EGAY]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Sat 18 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #008/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm 06W (EGAY) continued on its northwesterly track while over the warm Philippine Sea. Enhanced Southwest Monsoon bringing rains along the western sections of Luzon and Visayas.
Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of Central & Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 06W (EGAY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PhT Sun June 19 2011
Location of Center: 15.5º N Lat 124.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 165 km (90 nm) NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 250 km (135 nm) NE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 3: 265 km (143 nm) NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 290 km (157 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 330 km (178 nm) ENE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 6: 345 km (185 nm) ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 7: 355 km (192 nm) SE of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 8: 410 km (220 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Cagayan-Batanes Area
CPA [ETA] to Cagayan: Tomorrow Evening [5PM-11PM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12:00 AM PhT Sun June 19
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* 06W's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy on-&-off rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: SULU SEA, VISAYAS, PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, WESTERN BICOL incl. MASBATE, METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO, & WESTERN MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow. Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs! PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
06W (EGAY) is expected to intensify further as it continues moving NNW to NW track within the next 48 hours, passing along the NE tip of Cagayan tomorrow evening. 
TOMORROW MORNING (SUN): Intensifying as it approaches the coastal areas of Isabela-Cagayan...about 120 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela, PH [8AM JUN 19: 16.9N 123.6E @ 75kph]. TOMORROW EVENING (SUN): Very near the NE tip of Cagayan...still intensifying...about 75 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan, PH [8PM JUN 19: 18.6N 122.3E @ 85kph]. MONDAY MORNING: Leaving the Balintang Channel after passing over Calayan Island...strengthens to a Severe Tropical Storm...about 75 km NW of Calayan Island, Cagayan, PH [8AM JUN 20: 19.8N 121.0E @ 95kph]. MONDAY EVENING: Moving just west of Bashi Channel or off the South China Sea...about 185 km SSW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [8PM JUN 20: 21.1N 119.5E @ 95kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center. 06W (EGAY) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. NORTHERN CAGAYAN: Very close to Escaparda Point [ETA: between 7:00 PM-8:00 PM Tomorrow]. TUESDAY EVENING: Approaching the coast of Southeastern China...starts losing strength [2PM JUNE 21: 23.0N 117.5E @ 85kph]. WEDNESDAY EVENING: Makes landfall along the Fujian Province in China...downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) [8PM JUNE 22: 24.3N 116.7E @ 55kph]. THURSDAY EVENING: Just an area of low pressure, dissipating over Fujian Province [8PM JUNE 23: 26.1N 116.6E @ 20kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
06W's (EGAY) circulation slightly improved but still the low-level circulation center (LLCC) is not aligned with the rain-cloud convection. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Aurora, Quezon, Quirino, Bicol Region, Polillo Islands, and portions of Southern Tagalog Provinces. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 350 mm (high) near the center of 06W (EGAY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
The new Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA/1008 MB) continues to develop over the Caroline Islands, SW of Guam. Its possible center was located near lat 7.0N lon 142.3E...about 1740 km East of Mindanao, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...drifting SW slowly & consolidating. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains @ 20% [Low]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
In Effect: CATANDUANES, ALBAY, CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, POLILLO IS., QUEZON, AURORA, CAGAYAN, ISABELA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, CALAYAN-BABUYAN IS., IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE, KALINGA, ABRA, APAYAO & ILOCOS NORTE.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides.
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 PM (12 GMT) SAT 18 JUNE POSITION: 15.3N 124.9E.
*TROPICAL STORM 06W, LOCATED 230 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS TS 06W IS STILL
STRUGGLING AGAINST THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND SUPPRESSED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) ALONG
THE 20TH LATITUDE, WHICH IS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STORM. AN 180929Z 37 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF LOW LEVEL
BANDING IS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM, WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT VWS IS HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED BY GUIDANCE. RECENT INFRARED
ANIMATION DOES SHOW SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND A BURST OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, AND IS SUPPORTED BY SHIP AND LAND REPORTS
PROXIMAL TO THE SYSTEM. TS 06W IS STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS AN AREA OF DECREASING VWS
AND FAVORABLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...(more)
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**N/A**
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS 06W (EGAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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