for Wednesday, 22 June 2011 [7:45 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday June 22 2011):
Now issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TD 07W (FALCON). Please be advised that T2K Public Advisories are taken from the United States' Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and/or Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), with real-time extrapolation used in depicting the exact location of tropical cyclones.
07W (FALCON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W [FALCON]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 22 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #001/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The large Tropical Disturbance (LPA) over the Philippine Sea has strengthened into a Tropical Depression, and was retagged as 07W (FALCON)...currently moving WNW in the direction of Batanes-Taiwan Area. Its outer rainbands are now spreading across the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Meanwhile, this depression is now enhancing the Southwest (SW) Monsoon Rains across Visayas and Mindanao.
Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol & Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 07W (FALCON).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed June 22 2011
Location of Center: 13.0º N Lat 129.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 525 km (285 nm) ENE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 2: 565 km (305 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 585 km (315 nm) East of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 615 km (332 nm) East of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 675 km (365 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Batanes-Taiwan
CPA [ETA] to Taiwan: Fri Morning [2AM-2PM HKT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 300 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Wed June 22
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* 07W's (FALCON) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy on-&-off rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: SULU SEA, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
07W (FALCON) is expected to turn more northwesterward while over the Philippine Sea and continue intensifying for the next 24-48 hours. 07W shall reach Tropical Storm threshold later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Below are the summary of the 2-day forecast for 07W (FALCON). 
THIS AFTERNOON (WED): Turning Northwestward, intensified slightly...about 520 km East of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM JUN 22: 14.0N 129.0E @ 55kph]. TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (THU: Upgraded to Tropical Storm (TS) while still over the Philippine Sea...about 635 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM JUN 23: 15.7N 128.0E @ 65kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON (THU): ...about 445 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela [2PM JUN 23: 17.5N 126.7E @ 75kph]. FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensified to a Severe Tropical Storm as it turns more NNW...about 365 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [2AM JUN 24: 19.3N 125.3E @ 95kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. 07W (FALCON) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some strengthening expected within the next 24 hours. YAEYAMA GROUP OF ISLANDS: About 40 km West of Ishigakijima [ETA: between 8:00 AM-7:00 AM HKT Saturday, June 25]. EASTERN TAIWAN: About 210 km East of Taipei [ETA: between 11:00 AM-12:00 PM HKT Saturday, June 25]. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Attains Typhoon strength (Category 1)...passing near Isahigakijima as it prepares to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while on a Northerly track [2AM JUNE 25: 23.4N 123.8E @ 120kph]. SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Entering the East China Sea...maintains Typhoon intensity as it moves toward Korea [2AM JUNE 26: 27.9N 123.8E @ 120kph]. MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to Tropical Storm strength while passing very close the west of Cheju Island...approaching the coast of South Korea [2AM JUNE 27: 33.6N 125.8E @ 95kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
07W's (FALCON) broad circulation continues to consolidate and strengthen while over the warm Philippine Sea with its western outer rainbands now affecting the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: DEVELOPING INNER RAINBANDS - over water (off Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-85 kph) can be expected along these bands. DEVELOPING WESTERN RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading along the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 06-12HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 300 mm (high) near the center of 07W (FALCON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) WED 22 JUNE POSITION: 12.6N 130.1E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTHWEST
OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
ORGANIZING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDS
OF DEEP, BUT FRAGMENTED, CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG OUTFLOW CAN BE
SEEN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND TO THE EAST INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. A 211713Z AMSR-E
PASS SHOWS A SERIES OF FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC FROM THE NORTH, WITH DEEP CONVECTION AT THE CENTER. A 211301Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED DEPRESSION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITH A CLOSED 20-25KT CIRCULATION AND REGIONS OF 25-30KTS OF WIND TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-PACIFIC HIGH LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR 60 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. NEAR TAU 60, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
STARTS TO FALL OUT OF AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS RECURVING SHARPLY TO THE
EAST, ECMWF CONTINUING INTO TAIWAN, AND GFS, UKMET AND JGSM
FOLLOWING A TRACK SIMILAR TO THIS FORECAST....(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**N/A**
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 07W (FALCON)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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