for Saturday, 25 June 2011 [12:43 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday June 22 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS MEARI (FALCON).
MEARI (FALCON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MEARI [FALCON/07W/1105]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 017
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sat 25 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #014/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MEARI (FALCON) approaching typhoon strength as it tracks northward across the East China Sea. This storm continues to pull the Southwest Monsoon bringing rainy & windy conditions across most parts of Luzon including Metro Manila & Mindoro.
Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of MEARI (FALCON).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat June 25 2011
Location of Center: 28.3º N Lat 123.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 280 km (150 nm) SE of Ningbo, China
Distance 2: 295 km (160 nm) ENE of Wenzhou, China
Distance 3: 390 km (210 nm) SE of Shanghai, China
Distance 4: 420 km (227 nm) NNE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 450 km (243 nm) NW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 6: 885 km (478 nm) NNE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 35 kph (19 kts)
Towards: Yellow Sea-Russia
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 150 mm (Med)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1,130 km (610 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft (7.3 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Sat June 25
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
MEARI (FALCON) is expected to continue moving northward across the East China Sea and into the Yellow Sea within the next 24 to 48 hours. It will start decaying upon entering the cooler sea temperatures of the Yellow Sea tomorrow. MEARI may still reach Typhoon intensity (Category 1) anytime today if intensification continues. Below are the summary of the 2-day forecast for MEARI (FALCON). 
THIS EVENING (SAT): Accelerating across the East China Sea, passing near the coast of Eastern China...about 210 km East of Shanghai, China [8PM JUN 25: 31.0N 123.6E @ 110kph]. TOMORROW MORNING (SUN): Starts losing strength as it enters the Yellow Sea...about 360 km SE of Qingdao, China [8AM JUN 26: 34.4N 123.7E @ 100kph]. TOMORROW EVENING (SUN): Continues losing strength while over the Yellow Sea...approaching the coast of Eastern Russia...about 325 km West of Seoul, South Korea [8PM JUN 26: 37.5N 123.4E @ 95kph]. MONDAY MORNING: Makes landfall along the coast of Eastern Russia...about 365 km NW of Seoul, South Korea [8AM JUN 27: 40.0N 124.2E @ 85kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. MEARI (FALCON) is a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Little change in strength is still possible today. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 465 kilometers (250 nautical miles) from the center. MEARI is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,130 kilometers (610 nautical miles) across. TUESDAY MORNING: Turns sharply NE-ward upon traversing the landmass of Eastern Russia...dissipates over land [8AM JUNE 28: 44.8N 130.1E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: VERY STRONG >> Cloudy with occasional to widespread moderate to heavy rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: LUZON, METRO MANILA, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, ROMBLON, BORACAY, & WESTERN BICOL. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 65 kph) will blow.
MEARI's (FALCON) very large circulation continues to dominate the East China Sea, Yellow Sea and the Northern Philippine Sea. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS (with a developing CDO) - spreading and affecting the Eastern Coast of China and the southern portion of the East China Sea. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading and affecting Eastern China incl. Shanghai, the Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, Western Coast of Japan, Yellow Sea incl. Cheju Island, & the Southern Coast of South Korea. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 150 mm (high) near the center of MEARI (FALCON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SAT 25 JUNE POSITION: 27.4N 123.8E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WRAPPING INTO, AND
ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN, THE CENTER OF TS 07W. THIS CENTRAL
CONVECTION REMAINS DETACHED FROM AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVERGENT
SURFACE INFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. A RECENT 242344Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A POORLY DEFINED LLCC WITH A BROAD
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST SIDES OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL (UL) ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES TO
THE EAST OF A FILLING UL LOW AND WEST OF AN UL RIDGE. SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT FROM THE LOW AND IMPINGEMENT OF OUTFLOW BY THE RIDGE ARE
HAVING LITTLE NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE SYSTEM, WITH VIGOROUS OUTFLOW
CONTINUING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS STEERING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE
EAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR FROM MIYAKOJIMA, JAPAN,
AND THE 242344Z SSMIS IMAGE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD ARE UNREPRESENTATIVELY LOW DUE TO THE SMALL CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON LOCAL PRESSURE AND WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM
SHORE STATIONS AND BUOYS IN THE REGION...(more info)
>> MEARI, meaning: Reflection of sound or echo. Name contributed by: DPR Korea.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MEARI (FALCON)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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