for Friday, 24 June 2011 [12:42 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday June 22 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, Twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS MEARI (FALCON).
MEARI (FALCON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MEARI [FALCON/07W/1105]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 24 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #010/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MEARI (FALCON) gains more strength while moving NNW across the Northern Philippine Sea...remains a very large system w/ a diameter of 1,200 km. This storm continues to pull the Southwest Monsoon across Luzon & Visayas - bringing occasional rains particularly along the western sections.
Residents and visitors along Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MEARI (FALCON).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri June 24 2011
Location of Center: 21.2º N Lat 125.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 360 km (195 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 375 km (202 nm) ENE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 385 km (208 nm) SSE of Ishigakijima
Distance 4: 575 km (310 nm) SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 640 km (345 nm) SSW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 6: 870 km (470 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Yaeyama Island Chain
CPA [ETA] to Taiwan: Sat Early AM [3-4AM HKT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 320 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km (650 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft (7.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.0-0.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12:00 PM PhT Fri June 24
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MEARI's (FALCON) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: VERY STRONG >> Cloudy with occasional to widespread moderate to heavy rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: LUZON, METRO MANILA, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, ROMBLON, BORACAY, SULU SEA, WESTERN & NORTHERN VISAYAS, MASBATE, BICOL REGION, & PALAWAN incl. CALAMIAN GROUP. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 65 kph) will blow.
MEARI (FALCON) is expected to continue accelerating NNW-ward across the Northern Philippine Sea for the next 24 hours before turning Northward. It will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) just after midnight tonight. MEARI shall reach Typhoon status (Category 1) by tomorrow (Sat) evening as it moves across East China Sea. Below are the summary of the 2-day forecast for MEARI (FALCON). 
THIS EVENING (FRI): Intensifying while moving across the Northernmost Philippine Sea...about 125 km SSE of Ishigakijima [8PM JUN 24: 23.5N 124.8E @ 100kph]. TOMORROW MORNING (SAT): Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) after passing over the Yaeyama Island Chain...about 350 km West of Okinawa, Japan [8AM JUN 25: 26.5N 124.3E @ 110kph]. TOMORROW EVENING (SAT): Becomes a Typhoon as it moves faster northward across the East China Sea...about 260 km East of Ningbo, China [8PM JUN 25: 29.8N 124.2E @ 120kph]. SUNDAY MORNING: Starts to lose strength as it enters the Yellow Sea...becoming Extratropical...about 200 km WSW of Cheju Island, South Korea [8AM JUN 26: 33.1N 124.5E @ 100kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. MEARI (FALCON) is a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will be expected within the next 12 to 24 hours. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 315 kilometers (170 nautical miles) from the center. MEARI is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles) across. YAEYAMA GROUP OF ISLANDS: About 40 km ENE of Ishigakijima [ETA: between 11:00 PM HKT Tonight-12:00 AM Tomorrow]. MONDAY MORNING: Weakens as it makes landfall over North Korea...attains Extratropical status [8AM JUNE 27: 40.0N 126.8E @ 65kph]. TUESDAY MORNING: Passing over Eastern Russia (just NNE of Vladivostok) as an Extratropical Cyclone [8AM JUNE 28: 46.3N 133.9E @ 45kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MEARI's (FALCON) very large circulation continues to consolidate and strengthen while over the Northern Philippine Sea with its southwestern & western outer rainbands affecting the eastern coast of Northern Luzon. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS - over water (off the Northern Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (off the Philippine Sea-Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 320 mm (high) along MEARI's (FALCON) western circulation (near Batanes Group). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) 
In Effect: THE CALAYAN-BABUYAN-BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides.
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 24 JUNE POSITION: 20.6N 125.6E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA SHOWS
SMALL-SCALE VORTICES CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND ROTATE AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TS
07W. THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, AND IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN THE 232035Z SSMI IMAGE UPON WHICH
THE CURRENT POSITION IS PARTIALLY BASED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS IS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 2.5 TO 3.0 SUGGEST, BUT IS CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TS 07W CONTINUES TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS
HAS INTRODUCED MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), LIMITING
INTENSIFICATION TO A SLOW RATE...(more info)
>> MEARI, meaning: Reflection of sound or echo. Name contributed by: DPR Korea.
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MEARI (FALCON)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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