for Sunday, 26 June 2011 [7:52 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday June 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS MEARI (FALCON).
MEARI (FALCON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MEARI [FALCON/07W/1105]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 019
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sun 26 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #017/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MEARI (FALCON) continues to rapidly accelerate as it moves into the Yellow Sea...now passing west of Cheju Island. This system has started losing strength as it enters an area of strong upper-level winds (VWS) and lower sea surface temperatures.
Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of MEARI (FALCON).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun June 26 2011
Location of Center: 33.5º N Lat 124.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 165 km (90 nm) West of Cheju Island
Distance 2: 410 km (222 nm) NE of Shanghai, China
Distance 3: 500 km (270 nm) SE of Qingdao, China
Distance 4: 500 km (270 nm) SSW of Seoul, S.Korea
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 41 kph (22 kts)
Towards: North Korea
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 130 mm (Med)
Rainrate (near center): 20 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1,130 km (610 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft (7.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Sun June 26
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)*
MEARI (FALCON) is expected to continue moving northward across the East China Sea and into the Yellow Sea within the next 24 hours, before turning NE-ward into North Korea tomorrow afternoon thru the evening. It will continue to decay as it moves into the much cooler sea temperatures of the Yellow Sea tomorrow. Below are the summary of the 2-day forecast for MEARI (FALCON). 
THIS AFTERNOON (SUN): Continues losing strength as it moves across the Yellow Sea...about 330 km SW of Seoul, South Korea [2PM JUN 26: 35.5N 124.4E @ 75kph]. TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (MON): Just along the west coast of North Korea...barely a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 220 km WNW of Seoul, South Korea [2AM JUN 27: 37.9N 124.5E @ 65kph]. MONDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it makes landfall over the NW Coast of North Korea...about 280 km NW of Seoul, South Korea [2PM JUN 27: 39.8N 125.5E @ 45kph]. TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipated over land - just along the Chinese-North Korean Border...about 475 km NNE of Seoul, South Korea [2AM JUN 28: 41.8N 128.1E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. MEARI (FALCON) is a Tropical Storm (STS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Further weakening on this system is expected today. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 270 kilometers (145 nautical miles) from the center. MEARI is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,130 kilometers (610 nautical miles) across.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy with occasional to widespread moderate to heavy rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow.
MEARI's (FALCON) very large circulation continues to dominate the Yellow, East China & Japan Seas and the Korean Peninsula including Northern China. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS (with a developing CDO) - spreading and affecting the South Yellow Sea, Cheju Island and the west coast of South and North Korea. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading and affecting portions of Northern China, North & South Korea, Sea of Japan, East China Sea and the main Japanese Islands of Kyushu and Westernmost Honshu.. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 75 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 130 mm (medium-high) near the center of MEARI (FALCON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA/1008 MB) forming West of Northern Luzon in the South China Sea (aka. West Philippine Sea). Its possible center was located near lat 17.4N lon 116.8E...about 380 km West of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving East slowly towards Extreme Northern Luzon. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system is @ 40% [Medium]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SUN 26 JUNE POSITION: 32.1N 124.7E.
*TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHWEST
OF CHEJU ISLAND, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONVECTION BECOMING VERY SHALLOW. OVER THE LAST 36
HOURS TS 07W HAS EXPERIENCED THE CAPTURE AND ABSORPTION OF A
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS PROCESS RESULTED IN ERRATIC MOTION BY 07W
ALONG WITH DIFFICULTY IN IDENTIFYING THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER. RE-
ANALYSIS OF IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM
SLOWED GREATLY NEAR 24/18Z AS THE SECONDARY CIRCULATION WAS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THEN AS THE SECONDARY CIRCULATION MOVED TO THE
EAST OF THE LLCC AND FINALLY BECAME ABSORBED AFTER 25/12Z, 07W
ACCELERATED AND MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED
TRACK. A 251324Z 25KM ASCAT PASS SHOWS BOTH CIRCULATIONS RESOLVED BY
THE SENSOR AND ONLY 30NM APART. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS CROSSED INTO UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, AND IS NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST THAT IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE IN THE REGION. POSITION IS
BASED ON THE PGTW FIX, INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT PASS SHOWING 45KTS OF WIND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. NUMERICAL MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS EXCELLENT AND
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOW THAT THE SECONDARY
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FULLY ABSORBED, TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO
REGAIN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AS ORIGINALLY FORECASTED...(more info)
>> MEARI, meaning: Reflection of sound or echo. Name contributed by: DPR Korea.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
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> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MEARI (FALCON)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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