for Saturday, 25 June 2011 [8:55 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday June 22 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS MEARI (FALCON).
MEARI (FALCON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MEARI [FALCON/07W/1105]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 016
7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sat 25 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #013/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MEARI (FALCON) is now well outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it quickly moved NNW across the East China Sea. This storm will continue to pull the Southwest Monsoon bringing rainy & windy conditions across most parts of Luzon including Metro Manila & Mindoro.
Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of MEARI (FALCON).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 7:00 AM PhT Sat June 25 2011
Location of Center: 26.7º N Lat 123.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 255 km (138 nm) NNW of Ishigakijima
Distance 2: 270 km (145 nm) NW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 310 km (167 nm) SE of Wenzhou, China
Distance 4: 430 km (232 nm) West of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 705 km (380 nm) NNE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 1370 km (740 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Towards: Yellow Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1,130 km (610 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft (7.3 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Sat June 25
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
MEARI (FALCON) is expected to continue accelerating NNW to Northward across the East China Sea and into the Yellow Sea within the next 24 to 48 hours. It will start decaying upon entering the cooler sea temperatures of the Yellow Sea by tomorrow afternoon. MEARI may still reach Typhoon intensity (Category 1) anytime today. Below are the summary of the 2-day forecast for MEARI (FALCON). 
THIS AFTERNOON (SAT): Accelerating across the East China Sea, passing near the coast of Eastern China...about 250 km SE of Ningbo, China [2PM JUN 25: 28.6N 123.6E @ 110kph]. TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SUN): Maintaing near-typhoon intensity as it enters the Yellow Sea...about 230 km ENE of Shanghai, China [2AM JUN 26: 32.2N 123.6E @ 110kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SUN): Starts losing strength while over the Yellow Sea...about 255 km East of Qingdao, China [2PM JUN 26: 35.8N 123.1E @ 95kph]. MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues losing strength as it approaches the coast of Eastern Russia...about 350 km NE of Qingdao, China [2AM JUN 27: 38.4N 123.0E @ 75kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. MEARI (FALCON) is a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will be expected within the next 12 to 24 hours. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles) from the center. MEARI is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles) across. TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns sharply NE-ward upon entering the landmass of Eastern Russia...dissipates over land [2AM JUNE 28: 43.3N 127.9E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: VERY STRONG >> Cloudy with occasional to widespread moderate to heavy rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: LUZON, METRO MANILA, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, ROMBLON, BORACAY, & WESTERN BICOL. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 65 kph) will blow.
MEARI's (FALCON) very large circulation continues to dominate the East China Sea and the Northern Philippine Sea. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS (with a developing CDO) - spreading and affecting Northern Taiwan & Yaeyama Islands, the northern portion of the Taiwan Strait and the southern portion of the East China Sea. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading and affecting the Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands and whole of Taiwan. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) near the center of MEARI (FALCON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 25 JUNE POSITION: 25.4N 124.1E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY LARGE, POORLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION
WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE CONVERGENT INFLOW. ALSO EVIDENT
IN ANIMATION IS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION AND BANDING. THIS CIRCULATION IS
ORBITING THE LLCC CYCLONICALLY AND DOES NOT HAVE A SURFACE
REFLECTION. THE POSITION OF 07W IS CONFIRMED THROUGH THE PGTW FIX,
RADAR FIXES FROM JAPAN, A 241539Z TRMM IMAGE AND A 240929Z WINDSAT
PASS. INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE WINDSAT PASS SHOWING 55KTS;
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD OF 45KTS ARE UNREPRESENTATIVE
OF ACTUAL INTENSITY DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PUTS THE SYSTEM BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS
INCREASING IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES,
BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. 07W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-PACIFIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE EAST. A STRONG GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE STR TO THE EAST
IS HELPING TO ACCELERATE 07W AND DEFLECT THE TRACK FURTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE YELLOW SEA AFTER
TAU 24 IT WILL PASS ACROSS UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
VWS AND START TO WEAKEN. NEAR TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH A
BLOCKING HIGH OVER MANCHURIA AND START TO SLOW IN TRACK SPEED. AS
THE BLOCKING HIGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA, THE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW THE
FLOW INTO LAND NEAR THE CHINA AND NORTH KOREA BORDER..(more info)
>> MEARI, meaning: Reflection of sound or echo. Name contributed by: DPR Korea.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MEARI (FALCON)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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