for Saturday, 28 May 2011 [6:50 PM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on CHEDENG!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday May 27 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter, SMS and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TY SONGDA (CHEDENG).
SONGDA (CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 155 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON SONGDA [CHEDENG/04W/1102]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 028
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 28 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #033/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon SONGDA (CHEDENG) rapidly accelerating northeastward...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility...now approaching the Okinawa-Ryukyu Area.
Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus and the Southern Coast of Japan (Kyushu-Shikoku-Honshu) should closely monitor the progress of SONGDA (CHEDENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat May 28 2011
Location of Center: 25.9º N Lat 126.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 175 km (95 nm) WSW of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 2: 180 km (97 nm) WSW of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 190 km (102 nm) WSW of Okinawa City
Distance 4: 230 km (125 nm) NE of Ishigaki Island
Distance 5: 480 km (260 nm) SW of Naje Island
Distance 6: 725 km (390 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 42 kph (22 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 50-100 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 37 ft (11.2 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Sat May 28
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* SONGDA's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* TO:
SONGDA (CHEDENG) is forecast to weaken rapidly as it accelerates rapidly NE to ENE-ward across the Okinawa-Ryukyus Area within the next 06-18 hours, and shall pass offshore along Southern Japan in 24-36 hours before moving out into the North Pacific Ocean. 
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING [SUN]: Approaching Naje Island...downgraded to Category 1...about 155 km WSW of Naje Island, Ryukyus [2AM MAY 29: 28.2N 128.3E @ 130kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON [SUN]: Becoming Extratropical (XT) as it weakens into a Tropcial Storm (TS)...just offshore, along the coast of Shikoku, Japan...about 160 km SSW of Kochi City, Japan [2PM MAY 29: 32.1N 133.3E @ 100kph]. MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Just offshore, along the SE coast of Honshu, Japan...approaching XT status...about 185 km SE of Tokyo [2AM MAY 30: 34.5N 141.1E @ 85kph]. MONDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes an Extratropical Cyclone while cruising fast across the North Pacific Ocean [2PM MAY 30: 35.9N 151.1E @ 65kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 160 km/hr (85 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (CHEDENG) is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 285 kilometers (155 nautical miles). SONGDA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers (480 nautical miles). OKINAWA ISLAND: about 85 km NW of Kadena AB...85 km NW of Naha...or 65 km NW of Okinawa City [ETA: between 9:00-11:00 PM JST Tonight].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
SONGDA's radial circulation continues to decay as observed on satellite imageries. Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (click here to know more about CDO). DECAYING EYEWALL - over water, after passing over Yaeyama-Miyakojima Islands early this afternoon...may approach Okinawa Island later tonight. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - spreading across Miyakojima-Yaeyama Island Chain, Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across East China Sea, Northern Taiwan, & Kyushu. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to moderate rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) near the center of SONGDA. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic). COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Yaeyama-Miyakojima Islands, Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands tonight. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern China, Taiwan, Batanes Group, and Southern Japan. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with possible occasional rains w/ squalls can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, WESTERN VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, WESTERN BICOL, ROMBLON, MARINDUQUE, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES including METRO MANILA & SUBIC BAY. Light to moderate SW to Westerly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SAT 28 MAY POSITION: 24.7N 124.9E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS PRONOUNCED ACCELERATION AND WEAKENING OF THE STORM
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE TYPHOON HAVE LINKED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
CHINA AND DEEPENING. SOUTHWESTERLIES ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE ARE
MERGING WITH UPPER CIRCULATION OF THE STORM AND IMPINGING ON THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS HOWEVER, AS THE
TROUGH IS TEMPORARILY FACILITATING DEVELOPMENT A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS, THE EYE HAS FILLED, AND
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS
THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM. A 280614Z 37GHZ TRMM IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM, AND THE 85 GHZ IMAGE FROM THE SAME PASS SHOWS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS SUBSIDED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STORM. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND RJTD, A 280300Z ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS FROM KNES, AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ISHIGAKIJIMA (ROIG). ROIG REPORTED GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 84 KNOTS DURING PASSAGE, WHEN THE STORM WAS TRACKING
ROUGHLY 20 NM TO THE WEST BY SOUTHWEST. TY 04W WILL REMAIN IN
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ONCE NORTH OF OKINAWA,
TY 04W WILL ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS AND SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER VWS SIMULTANEOUS WITH BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
(XTT). THE DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH AND VIGOROUS POLAR FRONT JET ARE
GIVING COMPUTER MODELS DIFFICULTY WITH XTT, INDUCING EXCESSIVE
DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (E-DCI). THIS IS RESULTING IN THE DYNAMIC
MODELS STEERING THE SYSTEM TOWARDS SHIKOKU AND THE KANSAI REGION OF
HONSHU. THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS WITH CONSENSUS THROUGH 12 HOURS,
THEN STAYS RIGHT AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE E-DCI...(more)
>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY SONGDA (CHEDENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment