for Friday, 27 May 2011 [1:53 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday May 26 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter, SMS and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on STY SONGDA (CHEDENG).
SONGDA (CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
SUPER TYPHOON SONGDA [CHEDENG/04W/1102]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 024
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 27 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #028/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Super Typhoon SONGDA (CHEDENG) has started to weaken earlier than expected - as its EYE undergoes an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC)...downgraded to Category Four (4)...Tropical Storm Force Winds approaching the Batanes Group. Weak Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) being enhanced by this howler - is bringing cloudy skies w/ some passing occasional rains, squalls & thunderstorms along Mindoro, Western Visayas, Western Mindanao & Palawan.
Residents and visitors along the Extreme Northern Luzon and the Southern Islands of Japan (Okinawa-Ryukyus) should closely monitor the progress of SONGDA (CHEDENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri May 27 2011
Location of Eye: 18.9º N Lat 123.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 200 km (108 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 215 km (115 nm) ESE of Calayan Island
Distance 3: 235 km (137 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 240 km (130 nm) NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 625 km (337 nm) SSW of Ishigaki Island
Distance 6: 965 km (522 nm) SSW of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 7: 540 km (292 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph (130 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 300 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile new!
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 40 ft (12.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
T2K Final TrackMap (for Public): 12:00 PM PhT Fri May 27
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* SONGDA's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* TO: EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
SONGDA (CHEDENG) is forecast to continue decaying after reaching its peak wind velocity of 260 km/hr 12 hours ago. It will then start to recurve towards the Southern Islands of Japan within the next 24-48 hours. Based on its potential track, SONGDA will leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday afternoon, May 28.
THIS EVENING [FRI]: Continues to weaken as it starts to recurve as it passes just to the east of the Batanes Group...about 190 km East of Basco, Batanes [8PM MAY 27: 20.4N 123.8E @ 220kph]. TOMORROW MORNING [SAT]: Downgraded to Category 3 as it recurves toward the NNE, NE...about 160 km SE of Ishigaki Is., Yaeyama Group [8AM MAY 28: 23.2N 124.9E @ 195kph]. TOMORROW EVENING [SAT]: Downgraded to Category 2 as the system passes very close to Okinawa Island - after exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 80 km East of Naha, Okinawa or 60 km ENE of Kadena Air Base [8PM MAY 28: 26.6N 127.2E @ 165kph]. SUNDAY MORNING: Starts tranforming into an Extratropical (ET) - as it passes near the Southern Coast of Kyuhsu, Japan...downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon [8AM MAY 29: 30.2N 130.9E @ 120kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 240 km/hr (130 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (CHEDENG) is an extremely powerful, Category 4 Super Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers (175 nautical miles). SONGDA is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 590 kilometers (320 nautical miles). BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS: about 190 km East of Basco or 215 km ESE of Itbayat [ETA: between 7:00-9:00 PM Tonight]. OKINAWA ISLAND: about 55 km NE of Kadena AB...50 km NNE of Naha...or 30 km East of Okinawa Cirt [ETA: between 9:00-11:00 PM JST Tomorrow Evening]. MONDAY MORNING: Loses tropical characteristics...becomes Extratropical while passing to the SE of Tokyo in Honshu, Japan [8AM MAY 30: 34.3N 141.1E @ 75kph]. TUESDAY MORNING: Over the cooler seas of the NW Pacific Ocean [8AM MAY 31: 36.5N 153.5E @ 65kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
SONGDA's impressive & strong radial circulation continues to be observe on satellite imageries. Its eye is currently undergoing an Eyewall-Replacement Cycle (ERC) (Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: 19-KM. SMALL, CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - over water (Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - over water...but its Western & SW edge are affecting the coastal areas of Northeastern Cagayan...and will arrive over the Batanes Group later this afternoon or evening. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Cagayan, Calayan-Babuyan Islands, Abra, Isabela and other parts of Northern and Central Luzon including Polillo Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 180 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 300 mm (high) near the center of SONGDA. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic]. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Aurora, Cagayan, Isabela, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands today. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon today. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with possible occasional rains w/ squalls can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN, MINDORO, & SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES including METRO MANILA. Light to moderate SW to Westerly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) 
Now In Effect: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS
The above areas will experience stormy weather - where winds of 60-100 kph can be expected today. Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
In Effect: CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, ISABELA, QUIRINO, AURORA, NORTHERN QUEZON, & POLILLO ISLAND.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 27 MAY POSITION: 18.1N 123.9E.
*SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED EYE AND ANIMATED MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM MIMIC
CIMSS DEPICTS AN EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH A LARGER RING
SURROUNDING A SMALLER RING. THIS COULD ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL
WEAKENING THAT HAS OCCURRED ACCORDING TO THE PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO
THE NORTH FILLS. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT REMAINS HIGH. STY 04W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER
STEERING RIDGE...(more)
>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
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FINAL TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SONGDA (CHEDENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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