for Saturday, 28 May 2011 [12:01 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday May 27 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter, SMS and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on STY SONGDA (CHEDENG).
SONGDA (CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON SONGDA [CHEDENG/04W/1102]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 027
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 28 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #032/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon SONGDA (CHEDENG) continues to move farther away from the Philippines...now passing very close to Ishigaki Island (Yaeyama Island Chain) and will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon. Enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) continues to bring occasional rains along Western Visayas, Palawan, Calamian Group, Mindoro and some parts of Southwestern & Western Luzon including Metro Manila & Subic Bay.
Residents and visitors along the Yaeyama Island Chain, Okinawa, Ryukyus and the Southern Coast of Japan (Kyushu-Shikoku-Honshu) should closely monitor the progress of SONGDA (CHEDENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sat May 28 2011
Location of Eye: 24.3º N Lat 124.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 40 km (27 nm) SE of Ishigaki Island
Distance 2: 305 km (165 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 495 km (268 nm) NNE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 385 km (208 nm) WSW of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 5: 405 km (220 nm) WSW of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 6: 410 km (221 nm) WSW of Okinawa City
Distance 7: 710 km (383 nm) SW of Naje Island
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 220 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 50-100 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 37 ft (11.2 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Sat May 28
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* SONGDA's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* TO:
SONGDA (CHEDENG) is forecast to continue decaying rapidly as it accelerates NE-ward across the Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyus Area within the next 06-12 hours, and shall pass offshore along Southern Japan in 24-36 hours before moving out into the North Pacific Ocean. Based on this potential track, SONGDA will leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later this afternoon and pass close to the NW of Okinawa Island before midnight tonight.
THIS EVENING [SAT]: Approaching Okinawa Island...accelerating NE after exiting PAR...downgraded to Category 2...about 140 km East of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa [8PM MAY 28: 26.3N 126.4E @ 165kph]. TOMORROW MORNING [SUN]: Just offshore, along the coast of Kyushu, Japan...downgraded to Category 1 as it continues moving fast NE to ENE-ward...heading towards the southern coast of Honshu, Japan...about 165 km South of Kagoshima City, Okinawa [8AM MAY 29: 30.1N 130.5E @ 140kph]. TOMORROW EVENING [SUN]: Just offshore, along the SW coast of Honshu, Japan...downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS), as the system starts to tranform into an Extratropical Cyclone...about 200 km South of Nagoya City, Japan [8PM MAY 29: 33.4N 136.9E @ 100kph]. MONDAY MORNING: Becomes Extratropical while over the North Pacific Ocean [8AM MAY 30: 35.2N 145.9E @ 75kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 195 km/hr (105 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (CHEDENG) is a major, Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 280 kilometers (150 nautical miles). SONGDA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers (420 nautical miles). ISHIGAKI ISLAND: about 25-35 km SE of Ishigaki [ETA: between 11:00 AM-1:00 PM HKT Today]. OKINAWA ISLAND: about 100 km NE of Kadena AB...110 km NE of Naha...or 95 km NE of Okinawa City [ETA: between 9:00-11:00 PM JST Tonight].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
SONGDA's radial circulation has started to decay as observed on satellite imageries Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CLOUD-FILLED EYE - decaying over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - especially the northern & NW portion, has started to move into Yaeyama-Miyakojima Islands. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - spreading across the nearby islands near Miyakojima Yaeyama Island Chain. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Bashi Channel, Taiwan, East China Sea, & the Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to moderate rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) near the center of SONGDA. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic]. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Yaeyama Islands, Eastern Taiwan, Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands today. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands, Extreme Northern Luzon, Rest of Taiwan and Southern Japan today. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with possible occasional rains w/ squalls can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, WESTERN BICOL, ROMBLON, MARINDUQUE, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES including METRO MANILA, SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including SUBIC BAY. Light to moderate SW to Westerly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) 
In Effect: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS
The above areas will experience stormy weather - where winds of 60-100 kph will be expected today. Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
In Effect: BABUYAN & CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals Number 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SAT 28 MAY POSITION: 23.1N 123.8E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 10 NM
DIAMETER EYE. THE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME ELONGATED TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. TY 04W HAS CRESTED THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND BEGUN ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BETWEEN
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE WEST AND A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE EAST. THESE FEATURES ARE ERODING
SOME OF THE CONVECTION ON BOTH FLANKS OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER,
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUFLOW REMAIN STRONG AND HAVE HELPED
MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY STRONG INTENSITY...(more)
>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
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LATEST WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SONGDA (CHEDENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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