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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday May 23 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter, SMS and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TY SONGDA (CHEDENG).
SONGDA (CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON SONGDA [CHEDENG/04W/1102]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Tue 24 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #016/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
SONGDA (CHEDENG) has rapidly strengthened into a Typhoon - as depicted on the latest 03Z satellite...now threatens the East Coast of Bicol Region particularly Catanduanes
Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of Luzon, Bicol Region & Eastern Visayas should closely monitor the progress of SONGDA (CHEDENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Tue May 24 2011
Location of Eye: 12.2º N Lat 130.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 560 km (303 nm) ENE of Borongan City
Distance 2: 640 km (345 nm) ESE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 3: 700 km (378 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 710 km (383 nm) ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 5: 745 km (403 nm) ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 6: 805 km (435 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Cagayan's East Coast
CPA near Bicol Coast: 8PM Wed-8AM Thu
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 450 mm (Very High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy) new!
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 480 km (260 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft (6.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12:00 PM PhT Tue May 24
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
SONGDA (CHEDENG) is expected to continue intensifying while maintaining its WNW to NW track across the Philippine Sea within the next 2 days. The typhoon is likely to move closer to the coast of Bicol Region particularly Catanduanes around Wednesday morning and into the afternoon, where deteriorating weather can be expected [8AM MAY 25: 13.4N 128.0E @ 130kph]. As SONGDA passes to the NE of Bicol Region - it will therefore gain more strength - becoming a Category 2 Typhoon by Thursday morning (May 26)...about 225 km NNE of Guigmoto, Catanduanes [8PM MAY 25: 14.4N 126.6E @ 150kph...8AM MAY 26: 15.7N 125.3E @ 175kph]. Its closest approach (CPA) to Catanduanes shall be about 250 km NE of Virac between 11PM Wednesday to 2AM Thursday; and 210 km NE of Pandan between 2-5AM Thursday (May 26). While its closest approach (CPA) to Camarines Sur shall be about 260 km NE of Caramoan or 325 km NE of Metro Naga between 5-8AM Thursday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (CHEDENG) is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 175 kilometers (95 nautical miles). SONGDA is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 480 kilometers (260 nautical miles).
FRIDAY MORNING: Upgraded to Category 3 as it starts to recurve towards the north, passing near the northeast coast of Cagayan (Northeastern Luzon)...about 195 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan [8AM MAY 27: 18.7N 123.5E @ 205kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Upgraded to Category 4 accelerate more NNE-ward, while passing along the Northernmost part of the Philippine Sea, just east of Taiwan...approaching Yaeyama Island Chain...about 215 km SSW of Ishigaki Island [8AM MAY 28: 22.6N 123.9E @ 215kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 3 while moving faster NE'ly - after exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...passing very close to the north of Okinawa Island...about 90 km North of Naha, Okinawa [8AM MAY 29: 27.3N 128.1E @ 195kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
SONGDA's circulation has developed an EYE with an organizing intense wall of cloud along its periphery (Eyewall). Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
EYE - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will continue to prevail along these bands until tonight.
OUTER RAINBANDS - approaching the Eastern Coast of Samar - light to moderate winds (<30 kph) with passing thunder squalls will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 450 mm (very high) near the center of SONGDA. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Bicol Region beginning tomorrow evening. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon beginning tomorrow. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. (MONSOON TROUGH) INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms will prevail along the following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SE to variable winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will be expected.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) TUE 24 MAY POSITION: 12.0N 130.9E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT IS INHIBITING OVERALL DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 232212Z SSMIS MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 40 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TS O4W IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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