for Monday, 23 May 2011 [7:27 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday May 23 2011):
Our T2K SMS Services on TS SONGDA (CHEDENG) has started issuing 6-hrly updates. Meanwhile, we are currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TS SONGDA (CHEDENG).
SONGDA (CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM SONGDA [CHEDENG/04W/1102]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 23 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #011/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm SONGDA (CHEDENG) has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is likely to reach Typhoon status later today.
Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of Luzon & Visayas should closely monitor the progress of SONGDA (CHEDENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT I.T.C.Z. (MONSOON TROUGH) INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms will prevail along the following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SE to variable winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will be expected.
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon May 23 2011
Location of Center: 10.9º N Lat 134.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 410 km (220 nm) North of Palau Is., FSM
Distance 2: 975 km (525 nm) ESE of Borongan City
Distance 3: 1070 km (577 nm) ESE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 4: 1135 km (613 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 1245 km (672 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
CPA near Bicol Coast: 2AM-8PM Thu May 26
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 510 mm (Very High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy) new!
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft (5.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Mon May 23
SONGDA (CHEDENG) is expected to continue intensifying while maintaining its WNW track into the Philippine Sea within the next 2 days. The storm is likely to be upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon later this afternoon or earlier [2PM MAY 23: 11.2N 133.5E @ 120kph...2AM MAY 24: 11.8N 132.1E @ 140kph]. As SONGDA moves across the warm Philippine Sea - it will therefore gain more strength - becoming a Category 2 Typhoon tomorrow afternoon or evening (Tuesday) [2PM MAY 24: 12.1N 130.9E @ 160kph...2AM MAY 25: 12.7N 129.6E @ 175kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 150 kilometers (80 nautical miles) from the center. SONGDA is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles). 
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a major Category 3 Typhoon while turning NW'ly across the Philippine Sea...passing to the NE of Bicol Region...with a distance of about 325 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM MAY 26: 14.4N 127.1E @ 195kph]. FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Steadily intensifying as it begins to turn more NNW'ly...just to the east of Isabela in Northern Luzon...about 320 km East of Ilagan City, Isabela [2AM MAY 27: 17.2N 124.8E @ 205kph]. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded to near-Super Typhoon status (Category 4) as it starts to recurve to the North...passing to the east of the Batanes Group of Islands...about 155 km East of Basco, Batanes [2AM MAY 28: 20.6N 123.5E @ 215kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
SONGDA's CDO continues to organize near its center. Latest satellite imagery continues to show a possible eye formation underneath the cirrus shield canopy - a sign that the system is near typhoon strength. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - remains over water (Philippine Sea)...possible "Eye" forming underneath. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - no longer affecting Yap and Ulithi Islands...now over water. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will continue to prevail along these bands until tonight. OUTER RAINBANDS - continues to spread across the Caroline Islands including Palau, Yap, & Ulithi Islands in Western Micronesia...now moving into the Southeastern Philippine Sea - light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 510 mm (very high) near the center of SONGDA. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) MON 23 MAY POSITION: 10.6N 135.0E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH
OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 221702Z AMSR-E
IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE AND AN AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE AMSR-E IMAGE AND A 221614Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWING A DEFINED LLCC.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS 04W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY POLEWARD IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE EAST OF TAIWAN TOWARD
OKINAWA AND WESTERN HONSHU AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS NOW SUPPORTING A
RE-CURVE SCENARIO AND TRACK EAST OF LUZON. THIS FORECAST IS,
THEREFORE, POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND EAST. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR
115 KNOTS BY TAU 120 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...(more)
>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND/JTWC TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS SONGDA (CHEDENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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