for Saturday, 21 May 2011 [6:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday May 21 2011):
Please be advised that the T2K SMS Service on TD 04W will initiate once the system enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Meanwhile, we are currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 04W (UNNAMED).
04W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 21 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #005/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 04W (UNNAMED) has just passed so close to the south of Yap Island...now creeping slowly WNW towards the Philippine Sea...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow afternoon or evening.
Residents and visitors along the Micronesian islands of Yap, Ulithi and Palau should closely monitor the progress of 04W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat May 21 2011
Location of Center: 9.1º N Lat 138.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 45 km (25 nm) SSW of Yap Is., FSM
Distance 2: 330 km (180 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 435 km (235 nm) NE of Palau Is., FSM
Distance 4: 1375 km (742 nm) ESE of Surigao City, PH
Distance 5: 1570 km (848 nm) ESE of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
24hr Total Rainfall (near center): 500 mm (Very Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): 350 km (190 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Sat May 21
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
04W (UNNAMED) is likely to regain Tropical Storm status later tonight or early tomorrow, as the moderate upper-level northerly winds (vertical wind shear) over the system relaxes. The depression is expected to maintain its slow WNW track for the next 1 to 2 days and intensify further while heading into the Philippine Sea [2AM MAY 22: 9.3N 137.2E @ 65kph...2PM MAY 22: 9.8N 135.9E @ 75kph]. 04W will then enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as a strong Tropical Storm by tomorrow evening, May 22 as it moves across the warm Philippine Sea [2AM MAY 23: 10.3N 134.5E @ 95kph...2PM MAY 23: 10.8N 133.2E @ 110kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 04W (UNNAMED) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale - and is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 350 kilometers (190 nautical miles). 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon while tracking NW'ly across the Philippine Sea...about 630 km East of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2PM MAY 24: 11.7N 131.2E @ 140kph]. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Upgraded to a Category 2 Typhoon as it moves closer to the east coast of Bicol Region...about 575 km East of Sorsogon City [2PM MAY 25: 12.9N 129.3E @ 165kph]. THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Upgraded to a Category 3 Typhoon w/ almost 200-km/hr winds, while passing just to the northeast of Bicol Region...about 350 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM MAY 26: 15.0N 127.1E @ 195kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
04W's circulation has become slightly organized, with deep (rain) convection now building north of the center. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - N/A. (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - organizing...currently affecting Yap-Ulithi Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - currently spreading across most parts of the Caroline Islands including Western Micronesia & the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea - light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 500 mm (very heavy) near the center of 04W. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. (MONSOON TROUGH) INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SE to variable winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will be expected.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs! RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SAT 21 MAY POSITION: 8.9N 138.2E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM
SOUTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A
210403Z AMSRE MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING
WITH A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A
MAJORITY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM ANIMATED MSI AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP (JUST 35 NM
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM) INDICATING 10 KT SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS AND A
1001 MSLP (EQUIVALENT TO 28 KNOT WINDS ON THE KNAFF-ZEHR SCALE).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING TOWARD A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING VWS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHILE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE HINDERED BY NORTHERLY VWS. TD 04W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS THE CURRENTLY EAST-WEST ORIENTATED STR.
IMPROVED OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WELL AS
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE IN THE LATER TAUS.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH JGSM AND
GFS STILL ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS PACKAGE, AND INDICATING A
MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST FAVORS NOGAPS, GFDN, EGRR, AND
ECMWF, IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS, AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND/JTWC TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 04W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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