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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday May 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter, SMS and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS SONGDA (CHEDENG).
SONGDA (CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM SONGDA [CHEDENG/04W/1102]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 031
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 29 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #037/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm SONGDA (CHEDENG) nears Extratropical Cyclone status as it moves across Southwestern Honshu.
Residents and visitors along the Honshu in Japan should closely monitor the progress of SONGDA (CHEDENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun May 29 2011
Location of Center: 33.8º N Lat 135.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 190 km (102 nm) SW of Nagoya, Japan
Distance 2: 195 km (105 nm) ENE of Kochi, Japan
Distance 3: 280 km (150 nm) SW of Osaka, Japan
Distance 4: 420 km (227 nm) WSW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 56 kph (31 kts)
Towards: Southern Honshu
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 50 mm (Medium)
Rainrate (near center): 50-80 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft (7.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Sun May 29
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*
SONGDA (CHEDENG) is forecast to continue losing its tropical characteristics as it passes along Southern Japan within the next 12 to 24 hours and will become Extratropical as it moves out into the cooler waters of the North Pacific Ocean.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (CHEDENG) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 230 kilometers (125 nautical miles) from the center. SONGDA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers (420 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with possible occasional rains w/ squalls can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, WESTERN VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, MARINDUQUE, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES including METRO MANILA & SUBIC BAY. Light to moderate SW to Westerly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
SONGDA's circulation continues to decay as observed on satellite imageries. Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - off SW Honshu, Japan. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Rest of Honshu and Shikoku, Japan. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 30 mm (low rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 50 mm (medium) to the northeast of the center of SONGDA. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with possible occasional rains w/ squalls can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, WESTERN VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, MARINDUQUE, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES including METRO MANILA & SUBIC BAY. Light to moderate SW to Westerly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SUN 29 MAY POSITION: 32.8N 134.2E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WELL ALONG IN THE PROCESS OF EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (XTT). THE POSITION CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DUE TO
THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC, GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN AGENCY AND AUTOMATED
FIXES, AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE STORM HAVE COMPLETELY SHEARED FROM THE LLCC, SURFACE REPORTS
FROM WAKAYAMA AIRPORT COUPLED WITH A 290004Z SSMIS PASS CONFIRM THAT
THE BOUNDARY LAYERS OF THE STORM REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED AND VIGOROUS.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS AND
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. COMPUTER MODELS ARE
STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL SYSTEM,
THE BAIU BOUNDARY, AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER WESTERN JAPAN. SOME VORTEX TRACKERS CONTINUE TO PULL THE LLCC
INLAND IN THE DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS, BUT MORE
MODELS, INCLUDING ECMWF AND NOGAPS, ARE BEGINNING TO RESOLVE THE
INTERACTION AND KEEP THE LLCC TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE JTWC
FORECAST REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF, AND FASTER THAN, CONSENSUS. TS 04W
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAKAYAMA
PREFECTURE AND THEN MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA, PASSING SOUTH OF BOTH
SHIMODA AND THE CHIBA PENINSULA. THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVELS COUPLED
WITH THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL KEEP TS 04W AT GALE FORCE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE XTT PROCESS...(more)
>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
LATEST WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS SONGDA (CHEDENG)...go visit our website @:
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