for Saturday, 28 May 2011 [7:14 AM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on CHEDENG!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday May 26 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter, SMS and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on STY SONGDA (CHEDENG).
SONGDA (CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON SONGDA [CHEDENG/04W/1102]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 026
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 28 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #031/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon SONGDA (CHEDENG) no longer "Super" as it moves away from the Batanes Group of Islands. Enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) continues to bring rains along Western Visayas, Palawan, Mindoro and other parts of SW Luzon.
Residents and visitors along the Yaeyama Island Chain and the Southern Islands of Japan (Okinawa-Ryukyus) should closely monitor the progress of SONGDA (CHEDENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat May 28 2011
Location of Eye: 22.6º N Lat 123.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 235 km (127 nm) SSW of Ishigaki Island
Distance 2: 250 km (135 nm) SE of Hualien City
Distance 3: 265 km (143 nm) NNE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 280 km (150 nm) NNE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 505 km (273 nm) NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 600 km (323 nm) SW of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 7: 615 km (333 nm) SW of Okinawa City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph (115 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph (140 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Yaeyama-Okinawa
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 36 ft (10.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Sat May 28
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* SONGDA's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* TO: EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
SONGDA (CHEDENG) is forecast to continue losing strength as it accelerates NE-ward across the Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyus Area within the next 12-24 hours, and shall pass offshore along Southern Japan. Based on this potential track, SONGDA will leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later this afternoon and pass close to the NW of Okinawa Island before midnight tonight.
THIS AFTERNOON [SAT]: Near Ishigaki Island...accelerating NE as it exits PAR...downgraded to Category 03...about 85 km ENE of Ishigaki Island [2PM MAY 28: 24.7N 125.0E @ 195kph]. TOMORROW EARLY MORNING [SUN]: Just north of Okinawa Island...downgraded to Category 2 as it continues moving NE-ENE-ward...heading towards the coastal areas of Southern Japan...about 185 km NNE of Okinawa City, Okinawa [2AM MAY 29: 28.1N 128.3E @ 165kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON [SUN]: Just along the coast of Shikoku, Japan...downgraded to Category 1 as the system starts to tranform into Extratropical...about 250 km SSW of Kochi, Japan [2PM MAY 29: 31.4N 132.9E @ 120kph]. MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Near Extratropical status...downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS)...passing along the coast of Honshu, Japan...about 215 km SSW of Tokyo [2AM MAY 30: 33.8N 139.2E @ 95kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 215 km/hr (115 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (CHEDENG) is a powerful, Category 4 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 295 kilometers (160 nautical miles). SONGDA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles). ISHIGAKI ISLAND: about 50 km East of Ishigak [ETA: between 1:00-3:00 PM Today]. OKINAWA ISLAND: about 95 km NE of Kadena AB...100 km NE of Naha...or 80 km NE of Okinawa Cirt [ETA: between 10:00-11:00 PM JST Tonight]. TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Loses tropical characteristics...becomes Extratropical while over the North Pacific Ocean [2AM MAY 31: 36.5N 155.8E @ 75kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
SONGDA's impressive & strong radial circulation continues to be observed on satellite imageries. Its eye continues to undergo an Eyewall-Replacement Cycle (ERC) (Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - over water (Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - approaching the eastern portions of the Yaeyama Island Chain. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Balintang & Bashi Channels, Taiwan, Yaeyama Island Chain, & the Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to moderate rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) near the center of SONGDA. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic]. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Yaeyama Islands, Eastern Taiwan, Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands today. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands, Extreme Northern Luzon, Rest of Taiwan and Southern Japan today. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with possible occasional rains w/ squalls can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, WESTERN BICOL, ROMBLON, MARINDUQUE, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES including METRO MANILA, SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including SUBIC BAY. Light to moderate SW to Westerly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) 
In Effect: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS
The above areas will experience stormy weather - where winds of 60-100 kph will be expected today. Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
In Effect: BABUYAN & CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals Number 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 28 MAY POSITION: 21.6N 123.2E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST EAST OF NORTHWARD AT 11 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 12 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TY 04W
HAS PEAKED INTENSITY AND CRESTED THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING (20 25 KTS)
SOUTHWESTERLY VWS, BUT STILL REMAINS IN A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SAME ANIMATION
ALSO SHOWS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM
THAT IS INHIBITING OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN QUADRANT, WHILE A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM IS INHIBITING OUTFLOW ALONG THE EASTERN QUADRANT. TY 04W
IS IS EXPECTED TO TURN INCREASINGLY POLEWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS, BEFORE ACCELERATING AND BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW BY TAU 60. IT IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN,
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
INCLUDING COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL GALE-FORCE LOW BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS, INCLUDING CONSENSUS,
TRACKING THE VORTEX JUST NORTH OF OKINAWA, INTO SOUTHERN KYUSHU AND
THEN ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS OF SHIKUKU AND HONSHU. THIS
TRACK FOREACAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET KNOWN MODEL TENDENCIES IN A RECURVATURE
SCENARIO...(more)
>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY SONGDA (CHEDENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment