for Wednesday, 25 May 2011 [12:38 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday May 23 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter, SMS and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TY SONGDA (CHEDENG).
SONGDA (CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 115 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON SONGDA [CHEDENG/04W/1102]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015
12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Wed 25 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #018/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon SONGDA (CHEDENG) has tracked Westward during the past 3 hours...threat to Bicol Region and Samar Provinces increases.
Residents and visitors along the Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region & Eastern Visayas should closely monitor the progress of SONGDA (CHEDENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PhT Wed May 25 2011
Location of Eye: 12.6º N Lat 128.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 435 km (235 nm) East of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 2: 490 km (265 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 500 km (270 nm) ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 535 km (290 nm) ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 595 km (320 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 840 km (455 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Northern Philippine Sea
CPA near Bicol Coast: 8PM Tonight-8AM Thu
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 280 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft (7.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6:00 PM PhT Tue May 24
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
SONGDA (CHEDENG) is expected to continue intensifying and move WNW to NW across the Philippine Sea within the next 2 days. The typhoon is likely to pass to the NE of Bicol Region (still at sea) between Wednesday evening until Thursday morning [2PM MAY 25: 13.5N 127.9E @ 140kph...8PM MAY 25: 14.6N 126.5E @ 160kph]. As SONGDA passes to East of Northern Luzon - it will therefore gain more strength - becoming a Category 3 Typhoon on Thursday evening (May 26)...about 310 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [8AM MAY 26: 15.9N 125.4E @ 175kph...8PM MAY 26: 17.5N 124.6E @ 195kph]. Its closest approach (CPA) to Catanduanes shall be about 250 km NE of Virac between 10PM today to 12AM Thursday; and about 220 km NE of Pandan between 2-4AM Thursday. While its closest approach (CPA) to Camarines Sur shall be about 275 km NE of Caramoan or 340 km NE of Metro Naga between 2-4AM Thursday. Over Albay, its CPA shall be about 330 km NE of Legazpi City between 8PM tonight to 12AM Thursday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (CHEDENG) is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 195 kilometers (105 nautical miles). SONGDA is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles). 
FRIDAY EVENING: Weakens as it start to recurve towards the North or NNE - passing to the east of the Batanes Group of Islands...about 225 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [2PM MAY 27: 21.0N 124.0E @ 185kph]. SATURDAY EVENING: Exits PAR as it passes very close or over Okinawa Island...about 180 km SW of Naha, Okinawa [8PM MAY 28: 25.4N 126.7E @ 160kph]. SUNDAY EVENING: Becoming an Extratropical Cyclone as it approaches the Southern Coast of Honshu, Japan...about 250 km SSE of Kagoshima, Japan [8PM MAY 29: 31.1N 133.7E @ 100kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
SONGDA's circulation has developed a cloud-filled EYE with an organizing intense wall cloud along its periphery (Eyewall). Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: EYE - still over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - still over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - still over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Eastern Visayas & Northeastern Mindanao. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 280 mm (high) near the center of SONGDA. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic]. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Bicol Region & Samar Provinces later today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon beginning tomorrow. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional squalls, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW to Westerly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) 
Now In Effect: CATANDUANES.
The above areas will experience stormy weather - where winds of 60-100 kph can be expected beginning Wednesday afternoon or evening. Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning Wednesday. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
In Effect: CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES, ALBAY, SORSOGON, BURIAS-TICAO ISLANDS, & SAMAR PROVINCES.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 24 MAY POSITION: 12.4N 130.2E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPROVING OUTFLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM FILLS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL
INFLOW OF HIGHLY SATURATED AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED ASYMMETRY IN THE
CONVECTION, WITH THE HIGHEST TOPS CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. A 240732Z SSMI PASS SHOWS NEARLY CONTINUOUS LOW LEVEL
BANDING AROUND THE LLCC AND AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION RELATIVE
TO PREVIOUS PASSES. TY 04W IS TRACKING STEADILY THROUGH A BREAK IN
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. CONDITIONS ALONG
TRACK ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE AND LESS THAN 10 KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FIXING AGENCIES AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE CURRENT POSITION...(more)
>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY SONGDA (CHEDENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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