for Thursday, 26 May 2011 [6:45 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday May 26 2011):
Please be informed that I will be ending the 3-HOURLY UPDATES on SONGDA, as this howler is no longer a serious threat to Luzon. Meanwhile, the 6-HOURLY UPDATES will resume tomorrow morning @ 6AM, as yours truly needs a DEEP SLEEP and BODY RECHARGE, as you know I have been awake for 3-Straight Days (with only an hour of nap per day). Please bear with me. Anyway, links at the main page are updated automatically from their different sources. ~ MVP .
SONGDA (CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
SUPER TYPHOON SONGDA [CHEDENG/04W/1102]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 26 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #025/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
SONGDA (CHEDENG) becomes the 1st Super Typhoon of 2011 - as it continues to move faster NW'ly. This system is not expected to make any landfall in Luzon - however, rains, squalls and thunderstorms can be expected across the country due to its Outer bands and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon.
Residents and visitors along the Eastern Luzon, Extreme Northern Luzon and the Southern Islands of Japan should closely monitor the progress of SONGDA (CHEDENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu May 26 2011
Location of Eye: 16.0º N Lat 125.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 235 km (127 nm) NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 330 km (178 nm) East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 345 km (185 nm) NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 385 km (207 nm) ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 5: 385 km (207 nm) ESE of Ilagan City
Distance 6: 465 km (250 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph (130 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 360 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): SONGDA's Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 36 ft (10.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM PhT Thu May 26
SONGDA (CHEDENG) is expected to continue intensifying within the next 24 hours reaching its peak strength of 250 kph (Cat 5). It will then maintain its NW to NNW track before recurving NNE-ward towards Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands on Day 2. Based on its potential track, SONGDA will just brush the eastern coast of Luzon through its Western Outer Rainbands between today until tomorrow.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (FRI): Reaches Category 5 while moving across the Philippine Sea...passing just to the east Cagayan...about 320 km East of Tuguegarao City [2AM MAY 27: 17.5N 124.7E @ 250kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON (FRI): Maintains its peak intensity, as it passes well to the east of the Batanes Group of Islands...about 325 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [2PM MAY 27: 19.9N 124.2E @ 250kph]. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Losing strength, downgraded from Super Typhoon...starts to move NE-ward towards Okinawa...about 240 km SSE of Ishigaki Island [2AM MAY 28: 22.4N 124.7E @ 230kph]. SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Exits PAR...downgraded to Category 3 as it passes over Okinawa [2PM MAY 28: 25.6N 126.8E @ 195kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 240 km/hr (130 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (CHEDENG) is an extremely powerful, Category 4 Super Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 270 kilometers (145 nautical miles). SONGDA is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 590 kilometers (320 nautical miles). SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to tranform into an Extratropical Cyclone...passing near the coast of Japan [2PM MAY 29: 31.1N 132.7E @ 130kph]. MONDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes Extratropical as it passes to the south of Tokyo [2PM MAY 30: 34.5N 142.0E @ 95kph]. TUESDAY MORNING: A fully-developed Extratropical Cyclone, accelerating ENE across the NW Pacific [2PM MAY 31: 36.9N 153.4E @ 75kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
SONGDA's impressive & strong radial circulation continues to be seen on satellite imageries. Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: 33-KM. SYMMETRIC EYE - over water (Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - over water (Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across the Bicol Region, Eastern Luzon, Southern Quezon, & Bondoc Peninsula. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 360 mm (high) near the center of SONGDA. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic]. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Bicol Region & Samar Provinces today. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon today. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with occasional squalls, & rains can be expected along the following affected areas: MINDANAO, PALAWAN, & VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW to Westerly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) 
In Effect: CATANDUANES, CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, ALBAY, QUIRINO, AURORA, QUEZON PROVINCES, POLILLO ISLAND, ISABELA, & CAGAYAN.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) THU 26 MAY POSITION: 15.6N 125.7E.
*SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 17 NM DIAMETER SYMMETRIC EYE WITH SPIRAL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM ALL
QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A SUPER TYPHOON WITH
130 KNOT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD,
AS WELL AS THE 26/04Z UW-CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 135 KNOTS. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE FUELING STY SONGDA AS
IT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK NORTHWESTWARD IN THE PHILIPPINE
SEA. STY 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED
TO TURN INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS AND TRACKS
TOWARDS OKINAWA, JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY PACKED
THROUGH TAU 48, ALTHOUGH GFDN AND NOGAPS ARE INDICATING SLIGHTLY
FASTER TRACK SPEEDS, WHILE GFS AND EGRR ARE INDICATING WIDER RE-
CURVE TRACKS, AND THUS A LATER CPA WITH OKINAWA, JAPAN. IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS, NOGAPS, GFDN, AND GFS HAVE STARTED TO TREND FURTHER
INLAND OVER MAINLAND HONSHU OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS. BASED ON THIS
TREND, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH, BUT REMAINS
INSIDE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FASTER DUE TO KNOWN MODEL ERRORS
IN A RE-CURVE TYPE SCENARIO. STY SONGDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 25 DEGREES NORTH AND SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) NEAR TAU 72. BY TAU 96, STY 04W WILL
COMPLETE ET AS A NEAR STORM FORCE LOW...(more)
>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SONGDA (CHEDENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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