for Sunday, 08 May 2011 [3:05 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday May 07 2011):
Currently issuing 3-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TS AERE (BEBENG).
AERE (BEBENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM AERE [BEBENG/03W/1101]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 08 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #009/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm AERE (BEBENG) is now moving slowly away from Bicol and has started reorganizing to the east of Polillo Islands...endangers Aurora-Isabela Area...Widespread rains continuing across the Bicol Peninsula. The T2K Automated Weather Station in Naga City has recorded 326.9 mm of rain during the past 18 hours.
Residents and visitors along Luzon and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of AERE (BEBENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with scatt$ered showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: PALAWAN & MINDANAO. Light to moderate NW, W, SW to variable winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today and tomorrow.
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun May 08 2011
Location of Center: 14.9º N Lat 123.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 90 km (48 nm) NNE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 2: 100 km (55 nm) NNW of Siruma, CamSur
Distance 3: 145 km (78 nm) North of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 145 km (78 nm) NNW of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 5: 150 km (80 nm) ENE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 6: 170 km (92 nm) NNW of Iriga City
Distance 7: 180 km (97 nm) SSE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 8: 190 km (103 nm) SE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 9: 200 km (108 nm) NNW of Legazpi City
Distance 10: 220 km (120 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Aurora-Isabela Area
CPA over Aurora-Isabela: 1AM-9AM Monday
24hr Total Rainfall (near center): 400 mm (Very Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6:00 PM PhT Sun May 08
AERE (BEBENG) is expected to start accelerating towards the NW to NNW-ward track for the next 24 hours and slightly intensify. This system shall make landfall along Aurora-Isabela Area by early tomorrow morning (approx 3-5AM)...and cross Northern Luzon, passing very close to Cauayan & Ilagan City in Isabela between 6-8AM tomorrow May 09, and over Tuguegarao City between 10-11AM. TS AERE will exit the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon before sunset tomorrow, passing very close to the west of Aparri, Cagayan and shall turn towards the North to NNE while traversing Balintang & Bashi Channels on Tuesday morning, May 10th...about 50 km West of the Batanes Island Group [2AM MAY 09: 16.2N 122.5E @ 100kph...2PM MAY 09: 18.1N 121.6E @ 95kph]...2AM MAY 10: 19.9N 121.1E @ 85kph...2PM MAY 10: 21.3N 121.7E @ 75kph.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. AERE (BEBENG) is a strong Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles) from the center. AERE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles). 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Just a minimal Tropical Storm as it accelerates toward the NE, passing very close to Ishigaki Island, and exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it undergoes Extratropical Transition [2PM MAY 11: 24.6N 124.8E @ 65kph]. THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it attains Extratropical status...about 155 km NE of Naje Island, Japan [2PM MAY 12: 29.7N 130.8E @ 55kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
AERE's circulation has reorganized while moving back into the warm Philippine Sea en route to Northern Luzon. Deep, new convective clouds has formed over the center. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over the Philippine Sea, just to the East of Polillo. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - continues to affect the Bicol Region including Burias & Ticao Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Metro Manila, Rest of Luzon, Visayas, Mindoro, Romblon, Masbate, & Marinduque - where light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 250 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (very heavy) near the center of AERE. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) 
In Effect: ISABELA, QUIRINO, AURORA, NUEVA ECIJA, NORTHERN QUEZON, POLILLO ISLAND, NUEVA VISCAYA, & CAMARINES NORTE.
The above areas will experience stormy weather today and tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today & tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
In Effect: METRO MANILA, CATANDUANES, ALBAY, BURIAS ISLAND, CAMARINES SUR, SOUTHERN QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, CAVITE, RIZAL, BULACAN, BATAAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, PANGASINAN, LA UNION, BENGUET, IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE, ILOCOS SUR, KALINGA, & CAGAYAN.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 & 2 are alerted against possible flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SUN 08 MAY POSITION: 14.6N 123.5E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO REBUILD OVER THE PREVIOUSLY
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. A WATER VAPOR LOOP REVEALS GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. TS 03W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TURNING MORE POLEWARD AS A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
STEERING RIDGE. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, TS AERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON JUST AFTER TAU 12. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND
CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT RE-EMERGES OVER THE LUZON STRAIGHT DUE TO
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TS 03W IS
EXPECTED TO RECURVE AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES BY TAU 72. IT WILL COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO A WEAK
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 96. BASED ON THE HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE SYSTEM WHEN IT RE-EMERGES IN
THE LUZON STRAIT, THERE IS A CHANCE DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR SOONER
THAN FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...(more)
>> AERE, meaning: A storm. Name contributed by: United States of America.
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS AERE (BEBENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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