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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday May 07 2011):
Currently issuing 3-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM & 3 AM) on TS AERE (BEBENG).
AERE (BEBENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM AERE [BEBENG/03W/1101]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 09 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #011/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm AERE (BEBENG) is now along the coast of Northern Aurora, just NE of Casiguran...expected to make landfall along Southern Isabela anytime this morning.
Residents and visitors along Northern & Central Luzon should closely monitor the progress of AERE (BEBENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT ENHANCED SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: REST OF BICOL REGION, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, ROMBLON, VISAYAS, AND MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will be expected today.
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon May 09 2011
Location of Center: 16.3º N Lat 122.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 45 km (25 nm) ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 110 km (60 nm) SE of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 3: 125 km (67 nm) SE of Ilagan City
Distance 4: 170 km (92 nm) SSE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 240 km (130 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 6: 250 km (135 nm) NNW of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 7: 310 km (167 nm) NNW of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Aurora-Isabela Area
CPA over Aurora-Isabela: 3AM-1PM Today
12-18hr Total Rainfall (near center): 100 mm (Moderate-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 405 km (220 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6:00 AM PhT Mon May 09
AERE (BEBENG) is expected to maintain its NNW-ward track for the next 06-12 hours, and will make landfall along Southern Aurora this morning (approx 8-11AM)...and cross Eastern Cagayan, passing to the east of Tuguegarao City around 2PM today. TS AERE will exit Cagayan early tonight (8PM), passing over or very close Aparri and shall track across Balintang Channel by early tomorrow morning (2AM) - passing over Calayan Island. It shall be in the vicinity of Batanes Islands around 8AM tomorrow, May 10, as the storm starts to recurve towards the NE in the direction of the Southern Islands of Japan. [2PM MAY 09: 17.6N 122.0E @ 85kph...2AM MAY 10: 19.3N 121.7E @ 85kph]...2PM MAY 10: 21.2N 122.5E @ 85kph...2AM MAY 11: 23.4N 124.5E @ 75kph.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. AERE (BEBENG) is a strong Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles) from the center. AERE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 405 kilometers (220 nautical miles).
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Becoming Extratropical upon moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...over Naje Island...about 275 km NE of Okinawa Island [2AM MAY 12: 28.2N 130.0E @ 75kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains Tropical Storm strength while passing swiftly to the south of Honshu, Japan...about 245 km South of Tokyo. [2AM MAY 13: 33.5N 139.5E @ 65kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it attains Extratropical status while moving across the open waters of the NW Pacific Ocean. [2AM MAY 14: 38.7N 153.1E @ 55kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
AERE's circulation remains intact as it approaches Northeastern Luzon. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - just along the coast of Northern Aurora-Southern Isabela Area...expected to move inshore off Southern Isabela later this morning. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - affect Polillo Islands, Aurora, & Eastern Isabela. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across portions of Northern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila & Southern Tagalog Provinces and Northern Bicol - where light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 100 mm (moderate-heavy) near the center of AERE. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT ENHANCED SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: REST OF BICOL REGION, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, ROMBLON, VISAYAS, AND MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 & 2 are alerted against possible flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) MON 09 MAY POSITION: 15.7N 122.8E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO SLOW AND TURN
POLEWARD SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. IR IMAGERY AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE A WEAKENING IN CONVECTION OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEN DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES OF 45 KNOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CYCLIC TREND IN CENTRAL
CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM. TS 03W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND
IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AND SKIRT THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
LUZON BY TAU 12. RECENT UPPER AIR OBSERVATION IN THE REGION INDICATE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN AS A WEAK TS THROUGH
TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A WEAK EXTRA-
TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 96. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD (NOW TRACKING THE SYSTEM ACROSS OKINAWA, JAPAN
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72) TO ACCOUNT FOR A SHIFT IN NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, WHICH REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. FORECAST INTENSITY
IN THE LATER TAUS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED DUE TO AN INCREASING
TREND IN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. BASED ON
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
POLEWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, THERE IS A
CHANCE DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST...(more)
>> AERE, meaning: A storm. Name contributed by: United States of America.
RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 12-18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS AERE (BEBENG)...go visit our website @:
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