for Sunday, 22 May 2011 [7:30 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday May 21 2011):
Please be advised that the T2K SMS Service on TS SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) will initiate once the system enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Meanwhile, we are currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TS SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG).
SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 60 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM SONGDA [Pre-CHEDENG/04W/1102]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 22 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #007/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Newly-named SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) has regained Tropical Storm status...continues to move slowly WNW away from Yap & Western Micronesia...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later this evening.
Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of Luzon & Visayas should closely monitor the progress of SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun May 22 2011
Location of Center: 9.7º N Lat 137.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 125 km (67 nm) WNW of Yap Is., FSM
Distance 2: 220 km (120 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 390 km (210 nm) NE of Palau Is., FSM
Distance 4: 1260 km (680 nm) East of Surigao City, PH
Distance 5: 1450 km (783 nm) ESE of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
CPA near Bicol Coast: Thu May 26
24hr Total Rainfall (near center): 500 mm (Very Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) / Small-Avg
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Sun May 22
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) is expected to continue intensfying while maintaining its WNW track into the Philippine Sea within the next 2 days. The storm will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later this evening [2PM MAY 22: 10.7N 135.8E @ 85kph...2AM MAY 23: 11.3N 134.5E @ 100kph]. While moving across the warm Philippine Sea - SONGDA will reach Typhoon status tomorrow afternoon [2PM MAY 23: 11.6N 133.2E @ 130kph...2AM MAY 24: 12.1N 132.0E @ 150kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) is now a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale - and is an small-to-average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles). 
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Category 2 Typhoon while tracking WNW to NW'ly across the Philippine Sea...about 565 km East of Sorsogon City [2AM MAY 25: 12.9N 129.2E @ 175kph]. THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded to a Category 3 (Major) Typhoon as it passes to the NE of Bicol Region...about 335 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM MAY 26: 14.9N 127.0E @ 195kph]. FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded to a Category 4, Near-Super Typhoon w/ forecast wind projection of 215-km/hr...passing to the east of Northern Luzon...about 340 km East of Ilagan City, Isabela [2AM MAY 27: 17.3N 125.0E @ 215kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
SONGDA's has improved overnight with a possible CDO forming over its center. The wind shear along the area has relaxed, giving way for its continued intensification. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - currently developing. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - well organized...currently affecting Yap-Ulithi Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - currently spreading across most parts of the Caroline Islands including Western Micronesia & the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea - light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 250 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 500 mm (very heavy) near the center of SONGDA. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. (MONSOON TROUGH) INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms will prevail along the following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SE to variable winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will be expected.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs! RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SUN 22 MAY POSITION: 9.8N 137.2E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
MORE SYMMETRIC, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 211619Z AMSR-E 36H
IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED, TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER EVIDENT ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES DECREASING SHEAR
VALUES OF 5-10 KNOTS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED LARGELY ON THE AMSR-E IMAGE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS AND JGSM
AIDS, MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND SUPPORTS A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH GFS AND JGSM REMAIN OUTLIERS WITH A SHARPER AND
EARLIER TURN POLEWARD, BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING CLOSER TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND FASTER AT THE EXTENDED
TAUS...(more)
>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND/JTWC TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 04W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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