for Tuesday, 10 May 2011 [6:37 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday May 10 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TS AERE (BEBENG).
AERE (BEBENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM AERE [BEBENG/03W/1101]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 10 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #017/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm AERE (BEBENG) has started to pick-up speed as it moves away from the Batanes Islands...expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow.
Residents and visitors along Ishigaki, Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the progress of AERE (BEBENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT ENHANCED SW WINDFLOW INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms will be expected along these following affected areas: MINDANAO & WESTERN LUZON. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will also be expected within this windflow.
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue May 10 2011
Location of Center: 21.3º N Lat 124.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 225 km (123 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 400 km (217 nm) NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 355 km (192 nm) South of Ishigaki Island
Distance 4: 705 km (380 nm) SW of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
CPA over Okinawa: 4PM-9PM Tue
24hr Total Rainfall (near center): 180 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) / Small/Avg
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Tue May 10
AERE (BEBENG) is expected to maintain its strength and accelerate NE-ward for the next 2 days - leaving the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow noon, May 11, and shall pass over or very close to Okinawa Island between 4-9 PM tomorrow Japan Time as a decaying system [2AM MAY 11: 23.2N 124.2E @ 65kph...2PM MAY 11: 25.5N 126.8E @ 65kph]...2AM MAY 12: 28.0N 130.3E @ 55kph...2PM MAY 12: 30.5N 135.3E @ 55kph.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. AERE (BEBENG) is a Minimal Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. AERE is a small tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles). 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes Extratropical while zooming past to the south of Honshu, Japan...about 655 km East of Tokyo, Japan. [2PM MAY 13: 35.3N 146.9E @ 55kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
AERE's circulation struggling as it moves NE toward Okinawa Area. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - weakening over water. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along the CDO.(click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - not affecting any islands or landmass. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Batanes Group of Islands & Yaeyama Island Chain - where light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 175 mm (heavy) near the center of AERE. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) 
In Effect: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 & 2 are alerted against possible flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 10 MAY POSITION: 21.0N 122.4E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AFB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO CURVE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
THE STEERING RIDGE IS WEAKENING WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD, WHICH
WILL ALLOW 03W TO CONTINUE ITS NORTHEASTWARD COURSE. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED. DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS, HOWEVER, THE CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED AND CONSOLIDATED
CLOSER TO THE LLCC. THE MILD SURGE IN CONVECTION IS AN EFFECT OF
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
COMPETING INFLUENCES OF ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE STORM'S WESTERN FLANK, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
BASED PRIMARILY ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS FLAT THROUGH THE RYUKUS DUE TO A DEVELOPING
ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE ANTICYCLONE WILL DRIVE THE POLAR
FRONT JET POLEWARD AND SHIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH,
KEEPING 03W WITHIN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 30
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. THIS WILL ALLOW 03W TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE RYUKUS BEFORE ENCOUNTERING THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL
GUIDNACE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48...(more)
>> AERE, meaning: A storm. Name contributed by: United States of America.
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RECENT JTWC / WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS AERE (BEBENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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