for Thursday, 26 May 2011 [1:00 AM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 3-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on CHEDENG!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday May 25 2011):
Now issuing 3-hrly web, twitter, SMS and e-mail updates on TY SONGDA (CHEDENG).
SONGDA (CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON SONGDA [CHEDENG/04W/1102]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 019
12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Thu 26 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #022/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon SONGDA (CHEDENG) maintains its strength as it continued moving poleward, passing well to the east of Catanduanes Island...sparing the Bicol Region. Majority of the Forecast Guidance Models depicted a sudden NW-NNW track since last night. Despite a brief Westward track towards Northern Samar early this morning, the models - particularly the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are eager enough to show a track towards the NW-NNW. Therefore, the result turned out to be impressive.
Residents and visitors along the Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region & Eastern Visayas should closely monitor the progress of SONGDA (CHEDENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* SONGDA's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional squalls, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW to Westerly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PhT Thu May 26 2011
Location of Eye: 13.6º N Lat 127.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 305 km (165 nm) ENE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 2: 325 km (175 nm) East of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 355 km (192 nm) ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 385 km (208 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 410 km (222 nm) ENE of Iriga City
Distance 6: 430 km (232 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 7: 665 km (360 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
CPA near Bicol Coast: Ongoing til 8AM Today
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 320 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 PM PhT Wed May 25
SONGDA (CHEDENG) is expected to continue intensifying as it moves NW to NNW across the Philippine Sea, east of Luzon for the next 2 days. The typhoon is likely to pass more or less 300 km to the ENE of Bicol Region later today.
THIS MORNING (THU): Passing well to the ENE of Catanduanes Island...about 260 km East of Guigmoto, Catanduanes [8AM MAY 26: 14.4N 126.4E @ 205kph]. THIS EVENING (THU): Becomes a Category 4 Typhoon, while located to the east of Aurora or along the Philippine Sea [8PM MAY 26: 16.1N 125.5E @ 215kph]. FRIDAY MORNING: At near-Super Typhoon strength as it turns more northerly...about 365 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela [8AM MAY 27: 17.7N 124.7E @ 220kph]. FRIDAY EVENING: Starts to recurve towards the Northeast, while passing well to the east of Batanes group of Islands...about 245 km ENE of Calayan Island (Balintang Channel) [8PM MAY 27: 20.0N 124.3E @ 220kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 195 km/hr (105 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (CHEDENG) is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles). SONGDA is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles). CATANDUANES: about 220 km NE of Pandan or 350 km NE of Virac [between 8:00-11:00 AM Today]. CAMARINES SUR: about 285 km ENE of Caramoan or 340 km ENE of Metro Naga [between 8:00-10:00 AM Today]. ALBAY: about 330 km ENE of Legazpi City [between 5:00-8:00 AM Tomorrow]. SORSOGON: about 315 km ENE of Sorsogon City [between 4:00-7:00 AM Today].
SATURDAY EVENING: Recurves towards the NE as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...approaching the southwest coast of Okinawa Island [8PM MAY 28: 25.6N 126.8E @ 175kph]. SUNDAY EVENING: Accelerating ENE-ward while passing to the south of Kyushu, Japan...becoming Extratropical [8PM MAY 29: 31.6N 134.7E @ 100kph]. MONDAY EVENING: Attains Extratropical status as it moves ENE-ward [8PM MAY 30: 34.0N 145.3E @ 95kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
SONGDA's circulation has come more radial...cloud-filled eye can now be seen on satellite imageries. Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: 24-KM. CLOUD-FILLED EYE - still over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - still over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - still over water...but brushing the east coast of Catanduanes Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across the Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, Masbate, & Eastern & Northern Visayas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 320 mm (high) near the center of SONGDA. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic]. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Bicol Region & Samar Provinces today. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon tonight until tomorrow. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) 
In Effect: CATANDUANES, SORSOGON, ALBAY, CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, & SAMAR PROVINCES.
The above areas will experience stormy weather - where winds of 60-100 kph can be expected beginning tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
In Effect: MARINDUQUE, MASBATE, BURIAS IS., TICAO IS., QUEZON, POLILLO IS., AURORA, NORTHERN LEYTE, & BILIRAN IS.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 PM (12 GMT) WED 25 MAY POSITION: 13.1N 127.4E.
*...(more)
>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT JTWC TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY SONGDA (CHEDENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment