for Sunday, 08 May 2011 [11:38 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday May 07 2011):
Currently issuing 3-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TS AERE (BEBENG).
AERE (BEBENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM AERE [BEBENG/03W/1101]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Mon 09 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #010/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm AERE (BEBENG) continues to track NNW slowly across the Philippine Sea. The T2K Automated Weather Station (AWS) in Naga City has recorded 389.6 mm of rain during the past 24 hours.
Residents and visitors along Luzon and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of AERE (BEBENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with scatt$ered showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: PALAWAN & MINDANAO. Light to moderate NW, W, SW to variable winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today and tomorrow.
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PhT Mon May 09 2011
Location of Center: 15.5º N Lat 123.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 125 km (68 nm) SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 210 km (114 nm) NNW of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 155 km (83 nm) ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 4: 210 km (97 nm) North of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 155 km (83 nm) ENE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 6: 210 km (113 nm) ESE of Cauayan, Isabela
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Aurora-Isabela Area
CPA over Aurora-Isabela: 1AM-9AM Monday
24hr Total Rainfall (near center): 400 mm (Very Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
AERE (BEBENG) is expected to move NW to NNW-ward track for the next 24 hours, and shall make landfall along Aurora-Isabela Area early this morning (approx 3-4AM)...and cross Northern Luzon, passing very close to Cauayan & Ilagan City in Isabela between 8-11AM today May 09, and over Tuguegarao City between 10-11AM. TS AERE will exit the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon before sunset today, passing very close to the west of Aparri, Cagayan and shall turn towards the North to NNE while traversing Balintang & Bashi Channels on Tuesday morning, May 10th...about 50 km West of the Batanes Island Group [8AM MAY 09: 17.2N 121.9E @ 95kph...8PM MAY 09: 19.1N 121.2E @ 85kph]...8AM MAY 10: 20.6N 121.4E @ 85kph...8PM MAY 10: 22.3N 122.7E @ 75kph.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. AERE (BEBENG) is a strong Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles) from the center. AERE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles). 
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Just a minimal Tropical Storm as it accelerates toward the NE, passing very close to Oklinawa after exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...becoming Extratropical [8PM MAY 11: 26.2N 126.5E @ 65kph]. THURSDAY EVENING: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it attains Extratropical status. [8PM MAY 12: 31.7N 133.9E @ 55kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
AERE's circulation has reorganized while moving back into the warm Philippine Sea en route to Northern Luzon. Deep, new convective clouds has formed over the center. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over the Philippine Sea, just to the East of Polillo. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - continues to affect the Bicol Region including Burias & Ticao Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Metro Manila, Rest of Luzon, Visayas, Mindoro, Romblon, Masbate, & Marinduque - where light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 250 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (very heavy) near the center of AERE. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) 
In Effect: ISABELA, QUIRINO, AURORA, NUEVA ECIJA, NORTHERN QUEZON, POLILLO ISLAND, NUEVA VISCAYA, & CAMARINES NORTE.
The above areas will experience stormy weather today and tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today & tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
In Effect: METRO MANILA, CATANDUANES, ALBAY, BURIAS ISLAND, CAMARINES SUR, SOUTHERN QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, CAVITE, RIZAL, BULACAN, BATAAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, PANGASINAN, LA UNION, BENGUET, IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE, ILOCOS SUR, KALINGA, & CAGAYAN.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 & 2 are alerted against possible flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 PM (12 GMT) SUN 08 MAY POSITION: 15.4N 122.9E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
081210Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WHICH IS LIKELY CAUSED BY LAND INTERACTION.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH
THE RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TS 03W CONTINUES TO TURN MORE POLEWARD AROUND THE MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE, WHICH IS WEAKENING AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING...(more)
>> AERE, meaning: A storm. Name contributed by: United States of America.
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS AERE (BEBENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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