for Wednesday, 11 May 2011 [6:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday May 11 2011):
This is to announce that Typhoon2000 is now in Twitter - you can follow us @ Twitter.com/Typhoon2k. Meanwhile, we are currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TS AERE (BEBENG).
AERE (BEBENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM AERE [BEBENG/03W/1101]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 018
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 11 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #021/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm AERE (BEBENG) has moved past the northern shores of Okinawa, while moving rapidly northeastward...will pass very close to Naje Island later. This system will start transforming into an Extratropical Cyclone.
Residents and visitors along the Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the progress of AERE (BEBENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 36 hours)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed May 11 2011
Location of Center: 27.5º N Lat 128.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 130 km (70 nm) NE of Okinawa Island
Distance 2: 165 km (90 nm) SW of Naje Island
Distance 3: 555 km (300 nm) NE of Ishigaki Island
Distance 4: 1035 km (560 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 40 kph (22 kts)
Towards: Naje-Ryukyus
24hr Total Rainfall (near center): 100 mm (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Wed May 11
AERE (BEBENG) will continue accelerating towards the NE for the next 36 hours and will reach Extratropical status while passing swiftly to the south of Japan. [2AM MAY 12: 29.3N 131.4E @ 65kph...2PM MAY 12: 32.3N 136.5E @ 65kph]...2AM MAY 13: 35.0N 141.6E @ 65kph [ET].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. AERE (BEBENG) is a weak Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...expected to lose tropical characteristics within 24-36 hours. AERE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
AERE's circulation remains slightly sheared with most of its rain-cloud convection to the east of the center. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: 
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - None. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along the CDO.(click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - becoming fragmented as it affects Okinawa and Naje Island. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across the southern portions of Kyushu, Japan - where light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 25 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 100 mm (heavy) located to the South & East of AERE's center. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. (MONSOON TROUGH) INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Sunny to cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms will be expected along these following affected areas: BICOL REGION, VISAYAS, MINDANAO & PALAWAN. Light to moderate SE or variable winds (not in excess of 30 kph) expected.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) WED 11 MAY POSITION: 26.5N 127.6E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10 NM NORTHWEST
OF KADENA AFB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM RODN SHOW TS AERE IS TRACKING JUST
OFF-SHORE OF THE WEST COAST OF OKINAWA. OBSERVATIONS ALSO CONFIRM
THAT THE INTENSITY IS AT LOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, AND AN 110020Z
37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING GOOD
ORGANIZATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS.
MINIMAL BANDING IS FORMING OVER THE STORMS WESTERN HALF AND THE
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ANIMATED VISUAL IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT TONGUE OF DRY AIR FLOWING
INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING WRAPPED INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). POSITION CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DUE TO
THE EXPOSED LLCC AND THE PROXIMAL RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THERE IS EXCELLENT FIX AGREEMENT BETWEEN PGTW AND RJTD. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM RODN, AS
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ASSESSMENTS ARE LAGGING OBSERVED WIND STRENGTH.
THIS IS NOT SURPRISING, AS RODN OBSERVATIONS REPORTED PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN AS THE SYSTEM PASSED BUT THERE WERE NO REPORTS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WARMING TOPS OVER
THE SYSTEM AND DIMINISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
DESPITE THE REDUCED OUTFLOW, UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS), INTERACTION WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (XTT) WILL KEEP 03W
AT LOW-GALE FORCE AS IT TRACKS SEAWARD OF THE KANTO PLAIN. VWS,
CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS, WILL EXCEED 25 KNOTS BEFORE 03W
CROSSES 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. XTT WILL BE GRADUAL, AS THE POLAR
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS OVER SHIKOKU AND SOUTHERN HONSHU, WELL NORTH
OF 03W. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALIGNED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY. DYNAMIC
AIDS THAT PREVIOUSLY WERE HAVING TROUBLE TRACKING THE CORRECT VORTEX
DUE TO THE FORMATION OF A DOUBLE-EYE LOW (ONE OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN,
ANOTHER OFF-SHORE OF EASTERN HONSHU), HAVE RIGHTED THEMSELVES. NOW
ALL DYNAMIC AIDS ARE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AS TO BOTH TRACK AND
INTENSITY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST WAS RAISED 05 KNOTS IN THE
TAU 24 AND 36 POSITIONS DUE TO CLEAR GUIDANCE FROM
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS, WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE DUE TO THE EFFECTS
OF BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY. THE JT FORECAST NOW STAYS VERY CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS...(more)
>> AERE, meaning: A storm. Name contributed by: United States of America.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT JTWC / WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS AERE (BEBENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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