for Monday, 23 May 2011 [12:39 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday May 23 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter, SMS and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TS SONGDA (CHEDENG).
SONGDA (CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM SONGDA [CHEDENG/04W/1102]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 23 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #012/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm SONGDA (CHEDENG) gained more strength as it moves WNW across the Philippine Sea...likely to become a Category 1 Typhoon later today.
Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of Luzon & Visayas should closely monitor the progress of SONGDA (CHEDENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon May 23 2011
Location of Center: 11.1º N Lat 133.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 885 km (478 nm) ESE of Borongan City
Distance 2: 980 km (530 nm) ESE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 3: 1045 km (565 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 1055 km (570 nm) ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 5: 1090 km (590 nm) ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 6: 1150 km (620 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
CPA near Bicol Coast: 2AM-8PM Thu May 26
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy) new!
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft (6.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Mon May 23
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
SONGDA (CHEDENG) is expected to continue intensifying while maintaining its WNW track across the Philippine Sea within the next 2 days. The storm is likely to be upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon later this afternoon or tonight [8PM MAY 23: 11.5N 132.5E @ 120kph...8AM MAY 24: 12.1N 131.1E @ 140kph]. As SONGDA moves across the warm Philippine Sea - it will therefore gain more strength - becoming a Category 2 Typhoon tomorrow evening (Tuesday) or by Wednesday morning [8PM MAY 24: 12.5N 129.8E @ 160kph...8AM MAY 25: 13.2N 128.5E @ 175kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (CHEDENG) is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles) from the center. SONGDA is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles). 
THURSDAY MORNING: Becomes a major Category 3 Typhoon while turning NW'ly across the Philippine Sea...passing to the NE of Bicol Region...with a distance of about 280 km NNE of Virac, Catanduanes [8AM MAY 26: 15.4N 126.0E @ 195kph]. FRIDAY MORNING: Steadily intensifying as it begins to turn more NNW'ly...just to the east of Cagayan in Northern Luzon...about 245 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan [8AM MAY 27: 18.1N 124.0E @ 205kph]. SATURDAY MORNING: Upgraded to near-Super Typhoon status (Category 4) as it starts to recurve to the North...passing well to the NE of the Batanes Group of Islands...about 190 km NE of Basco [8AM MAY 28: 21.8N 123.2E @ 215kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
SONGDA's CDO continues to organize near its center, with somewhat broken rainbands along its SW periphery. Latest satellite imagery continues to show a possible eye formation underneath the cirrus shield canopy - a sign that the system is near typhoon strength. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - remains over water (Philippine Sea)...possible "Eye" forming underneath. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water...not affecting any islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will continue to prevail along these bands until tonight. OUTER RAINBANDS - continues to spread across the Caroline Islands including Palau, Yap, & Ulithi Islands in Western Micronesia...now moving into the Southeastern Philippine Sea - light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 280 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (high) near the center of SONGDA. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. (MONSOON TROUGH) INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms will prevail along the following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SE to variable winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will be expected.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs! RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) MON 23 MAY POSITION: 10.9N 133.9E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN IRREGULAR CDO FEATURE OF ABOUT 140 NM DIAMETER WITH AN
INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND DISPLACED SOUTH BUT WRAPPING WEAKLY INTO THE
EAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 222105Z
SSMIS IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER (POSSIBLY AN INCIPIENT MICROWAVE EYE) POSITIONED JUST
SOUTH OF AN INTENSE CURVED BAND OF CENTRAL CONVECTION. TS 04W HAS
CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK
ESTIMATES NOW RANGE FROM 55 TO AS HIGH AS 65 KNOTS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE
ESTIMATES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH OVERALL RADIAL OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SSMIS IMAGE...(more)
>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND/JTWC TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS SONGDA (CHEDENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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