for Friday, 06 May 2011 [5:55 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday May 06 2011):
Now issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 03W (PRE-BEBENG) as it forms to the east of Samar in the South Philippine Sea.
03W (PRE-BEBENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W [PRE-BEBENG]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 06 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #001/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The strong disturbance (LPA) over the South Philippine Sea, east of Samar has strengthened into Tropical Depression 03W (PRE-BEBENG)...now drifting slowly WNW...threatens Bicol and Samar Provinces.
Residents and visitors along Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas should closely monitor the progress of 03W (PRE-BEBENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed May 06 2011
Location of Center: 11.5º N Lat 128.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 315 km (170 nm) East of Borongan City
Distance 2: 415 km (225 nm) ESE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 3: 500 km (270 nm) SE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 600 km (323 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Eastern Coast of Bicol
CPA over Bicol Area: 8AM-2PM Sunday
24hr Total Rainfall (near center): 305 mm (Very Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Fri May 06
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
03W is forecast to tracking WNW to NW-ward in the direction of the Eastern Coast of Bicol Region for the next 2 days and intensify slowly. This system may become a Tropical Storm (TS) tommorow saturday afternoon (May 07), about 305 km East of Sorsogon City [2PM MAY 07: 13.0N 126.8E @ 65kph], and shall be passing more or less 100 km to the NE of Catanduanes Island or about 200 km to the NE of Metro Naga on Sunday morning (May 8) - with wind speeds of 85 kph [2AM MAY 08: 13.8N 125.8E @ 75kph...2PM MAY 08: 14.8N 124.5E @ 85kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) has decreased to near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. 03W (PRE-BEBENG) is a weak Tropical Depression on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. 
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Making landfall over Northern Aurora-Southern Isabela Area...about 50 km SE of Ilagan City, Isabela [2PM MAY 09: 17.0N 122.2E @ 95kph]. TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens after crossing Northern Luzon...shall be over the Balintang Channel...about 165 km WSW of Basco, Batanes [2PM MAY 10: 19.8N 120.6E @ 65kph]. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Over Southern Taiwan and making its final landfall...about 65 km ENE of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [2PM MAY 11: 22.8N 120.9E @ 65kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
03W's broad circulation remains over water (South Philippine Sea) and its outer rainbands are now affecting the Bicol Region, Visayas & Northeastern Mindanao. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS - still developing over the Philippine Sea and is not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ Gale Force Winds (<65 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across the Bicol Region, Visayas & Mindanao, where light to moderate winds (<40 kph) can be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 305 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of 03W. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: PALAWAN & MINDANAO. Light to moderate W, SW to variable winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today and tomorrow.
Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA/1010 MB) developing over the Caroline Islands just north of the Equator, south of Guam. The ill-defined center was located near lat 4.0N lon 144.1E...about 1125 km SE of Palau Islands or 1970 km SE of Mindanao, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center. The 48-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system is @ 30%. Click here to view current satellite image and flash animation.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) FRI 06 MAY POSITION: 11.5N 128.4E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND AMSR-E IMAGE
SHOW A STRENGTHENING, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING AND
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS FRAGMENTED,
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO INCLUDE A 06/0108Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 05/2140Z
WINDSAT IMAGE INDICATE 25-30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER; A SHIP
REPORT AT 06/00Z, WEST OF THE CENTER, PROVIDES FURTHER EVIDENCE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS NOW AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITH WINDS OF
360/20 KNOTS AND SLP OF 1003.5 MB. OVERALL, THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM PRODUCING BROAD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE TOO LOW AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS
IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSERVATIONAL DATA. TD 03W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
TO RE-CURVE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE UNTIL
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 72 DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG OUTFLOW
MECHANISM AS WELL AS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER LUZON AND MAINTAIN AT WEAK TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO UNFAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND
INTERACTION WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND/JTWC TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 03W (PRE-BEBENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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