for Monday, 23 May 2011 [12:48 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday May 23 2011):
Please be advised that the T2K SMS Service on TS SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) will initiate once the system enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) before sunrise today. Meanwhile, we are currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TS SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG).
SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM SONGDA [Pre-CHEDENG/04W/1102]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Mon 23 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #010/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) is just a shy away from becoming a Typhoon...now approaching the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...expected to enter on or before sunrise today.
Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of Luzon & Visayas should closely monitor the progress of SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PhT Mon May 23 2011
Location of Center: 10.6º N Lat 135.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 45 km (25 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 320 km (173 nm) WNW of Yap Is., FSM
Distance 3: 380 km (205 nm) NNE of Palau Is., FSM
Distance 4: 1095 km (590 nm) ESE of Borongan City, PH
Distance 5: 1255 km (678 nm) ESE of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
CPA near Bicol Coast: 8AM-8PM Thu May 26
24hr Rainfall Acumm (near center): 520 mm (Very High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy) new!
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 405 km (220 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 PM PhT Sun May 22
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) is expected to continue intensifying while maintaining its WNW track into the Philippine Sea within the next 2 days. The storm will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early tomorrow morning and will be upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon around 8AM Manila Time (00 GMT) [8AM MAY 23: 10.8N 134.6E @ 120kph...8PM MAY 23: 11.2N 133.1E @ 140kph]. As SONGDA moves across the warm Philippine Sea - it will therefore gain Category 2 status on Tuesday morning [8AM MAY 24: 11.7N 131.8E @ 160kph...8PM MAY 24: 12.2N 130.5E @ 175kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 140 kilometers (75 nautical miles) from the center. SONGDA is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 405 kilometers (220 nautical miles). 
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Becomes a major Category 3 Typhoon while tracking WNW to NW'ly across the Philippine Sea...with a distance of about 380 km East of Virac, Catanduanes [8PM MAY 25: 13.7N 127.7E @ 195kph]. THURSDAY EVENING: Steadily intensifying as it passes just to the NE of Bicol Region...about 265 km NNE of Caramoan, Camarines Sur [8PM MAY 26: 15.9N 125.0E @ 205kph]. FRIDAY EVENING: Upgraded to near-Super Typhoon status (Category 4) w/ forecast wind projection of 215-km/hr...passing near the coast of Northern Cagayan along Northeastern Luzon...about 130 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan [8PM MAY 27: 18.9N 122.8E @ 215kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
SONGDA's CDO continues to organize near its center. Latest satellite imagery continues to show a possible eye formation - a sign that the system is near typhoon strength. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - remains over water (Philippine Sea)...showing an early formative stages of an "Eye." Tropical Storm Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - well organized...moving away from Yap & Ulithi Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will continue to prevail along these bands until tonight. OUTER RAINBANDS - continues to spread across most parts of the Caroline Islands including Palau, Western Micronesia & the southeasternmost part of the Philippine Sea - light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 520 mm (very high) near the center of SONGDA. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. (MONSOON TROUGH) INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms will prevail along the following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SE to variable winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will be expected.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 PM (12 GMT) SUN 22 MAY POSITION: 10.3N 135.9E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY (221014Z TRMM AND 221102Z SSMIS) DEPICT
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE WITH
DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
KNES AND PGTW OF 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY ABOVE THE SYSTEM IS
PROVIDING STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN STEADY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...(more)
>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND/JTWC TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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