for Sunday, 22 May 2011 [12:38 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday May 22 2011):
Please be advised that the T2K SMS Service on TS SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) will initiate once the system enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight or tomorrow. Meanwhile, we are currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TS SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG).
SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM SONGDA [Pre-CHEDENG/04W/1102]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sun 22 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #008/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) rapidly gaining strength as it drifts WNW away from Western Micronesia (Yap-Ulithi-Palau)...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later this evening or early tomorrow.
Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of Luzon & Visayas should closely monitor the progress of SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sun May 22 2011
Location of Center: 9.8º N Lat 136.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 170 km (92 nm) WNW of Yap Is., FSM
Distance 2: 175 km (95 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 360 km (195 nm) NE of Palau Is., FSM
Distance 4: 1215 km (655 nm) East of Surigao City, PH
Distance 5: 1415 km (763 nm) ESE of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
CPA near Bicol Coast: Thu May 26
24hr Total Rainfall (near center): 500 mm (Very Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) / Small-Avg
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Sun May 22
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) is expected to continue intensfying while maintaining its WNW track into the Philippine Sea within the next 2 days. The storm will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later this evening and will be upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon tomorrow morning [8PM MAY 22: 10.7N 135.3E @ 100kph...8AM MAY 23: 11.2N 133.9E @ 120kph]. As SONGDA moves across the warm Philippine Sea - it will gain Category 2 status on Tuesday morning [8PM MAY 23: 11.5N 132.7E @ 140kph...8AM MAY 24: 11.9N 131.5E @ 160kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center. SONGDA remains a small-to-average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles). 
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Becomes a major Category 3 Typhoon while tracking WNW to NW'ly across the Philippine Sea...about 500 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar [8AM MAY 25: 12.6N 129.2E @ 185kph]. THURSDAY MORNING: Steadily intensifying as it passes to the NE of Bicol Region...about 290 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes [8AM MAY 26: 14.8N 126.6E @ 205kph]. FRIDAY MORNING: Upgraded to near-Super Typhoon status (Category 4) w/ forecast wind projection of 215-km/hr...passing well to the east of Northern Luzon...about 275 km East of Ilagan City, Isabela [8AM MAY 27: 17.2N 124.4E @ 215kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
SONGDA's has developed a CDO near its center - a sign that the system is gaining strength. Continued intensification can be expected. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water, just WNW of Yap Island, FSM. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - well organized...still affecting Yap-Ulithi Islands, but slowly moving away. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will continue to prevail along these bands until early tonight. OUTER RAINBANDS - currently spreading across most parts of the Caroline Islands including Western Micronesia & the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea - light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 250 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 500 mm (very heavy) near the center of SONGDA. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. (MONSOON TROUGH) INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms will prevail along the following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SE to variable winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will be expected.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SUN 22 MAY POSITION: 9.9N 136.8E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A MORE SYMMETRIC, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
CENTER. A 212057Z SSMIS 37H IMAGE SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT WITH A DEFINED LLCC.
THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-
15 KNOTS, WHICH IS ABOUT 5 KNOTS LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NORTH QUADRANT, WHICH IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS FORMED AND MOVED CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE DEFINED LLCC
EVIDENT IN THE 212057Z SSMIS 37H IMAGE AND THE 220023Z TRMM 37H
IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW...(more)
>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND/JTWC TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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