for Monday, 09 May 2011 [6:45 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday May 07 2011):
Currently issuing 3-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM & 3 AM) on TS AERE (BEBENG).
AERE (BEBENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM AERE [BEBENG/03W/1101]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 012
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 09 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #013/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm AERE (BEBENG) loses strength as it moves Northward across the Eastern shores of Cagayan.
Residents and visitors along Northern & Central Luzon should closely monitor the progress of AERE (BEBENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT ENHANCED SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: REST OF BICOL REGION, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, ROMBLON, VISAYAS, AND MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will be expected today.
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon May 09 2011
Location of Center: 17.8º N Lat 122.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 65 km (35 nm) ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 2: 85 km (45 nm) NNE of Ilagan City
Distance 3: 90 km (48 nm) SE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 120 km (65 nm) NNE of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 5: 185 km (100 nm) SSE of Calayan Island
Distance 6: 300 km (162 nm) SSE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Eastern Cagayan
CPA over Eastern Cagayan: Ongoing til 1AM
24hr Total Rainfall (near center): 150 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) / Small/Avg
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6:00 PM PhT Mon May 09
AERE (BEBENG) is expected to turn towards the North to NE within the next 24 to 48 hours and re-intensify slightly. It shall pass just to the East of Batanes Group of Islands around tomorrow afternoon and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday afternoon [2AM MAY 10: 19.0N 122.2E @ 85kph...2PM MAY 10: 20.9N 123.0E @ 85kph]...2AM MAY 11: 23.1N 124.9E @ 85kph...2PM MAY 11: 25.5N 127.7E @ 85kph.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. AERE (BEBENG) is a Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles) from the center. AERE is a small to medium-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles). 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Becoming Extratropical...accelerating rapidly across the open waters of the NW Pacific...and weakening [2PM MAY 12: 30.4N 135.2E @ 75kph]. FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Attains Extratropical status as it zooms past to the south of Honshu, Japan...about 560 km SE of Sendai, Japan. [2PM MAY 13: 36.0N 146.5E @ 65kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
AERE's circulation has shrunk as it passes along Northeastern Luzon. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - in the vicinity of Eastern Cagayan. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - affecting Rest of Cagayan, Aurora, & Isabela. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across portions of Northern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces - where light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 150 mm (moderate-heavy) near the center of AERE. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) 
In Effect: CAGAYAN & ISABELA.
The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
In Effect: AURORA, QUIRINO, IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE, KALINGA, APAYAO, BABUYAN-CALAYAN-BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 & 2 are alerted against possible flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) MON 09 MAY POSITION: 17.1N 122.3E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MOVED OVER EASTERN
LUZON AND THERE IS A DECREASE IN DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. BECAUSE OF
THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION, TS 03W APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA WITH EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, ALTHOUGH LIMITED IN
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TS 03W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS. IT IS
EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE OVER WATER IN THE LUZON STRAIGHT WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 DEGREES
CELSIUS) BEGIN TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. IT SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITY UNTIL AFTER TAU 48 WHEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 72, TS 03W SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A GALE-
FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
PACKED. HOWEVER, NOGAPS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM EARLIER AND TRACKS IT
SLOWER TO THE SOUTH. THIS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF TRACK
TO ACCOUNT FOR KNOWN MODEL ERRORS DURING THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...(more)
>> AERE, meaning: A storm. Name contributed by: United States of America.
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 06-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS AERE (BEBENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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