for Wednesday, 11 May 2011 [1:41 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday May 11 2011):
This is to announce that Typhoon2000 is now in Twitter - you can follow us @ Twitter.com/Typhoon2k. Meanwhile, we are currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TS AERE (BEBENG).
AERE (BEBENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM AERE [BEBENG/03W/1101]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 017
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Wed 11 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #020/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm AERE (BEBENG) has moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is now approaching Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands.
Residents and visitors along Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the progress of AERE (BEBENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)*
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Wed May 11 2011
Location of Center: 25.8º N Lat 127.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 100 km (55 nm) SW of Okinawa Island
Distance 2: 355 km (192 nm) ENE of Ishigaki Island
Distance 3: 390 km (210 nm) SW of Naje Island
Distance 4: 805 km (435 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 37 kph (20 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
CPA over Okinawa: Now until 4PM Today
24hr Total Rainfall (near center): 100 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Wed May 11
AERE (BEBENG) is expected to continue accelerating towards the NE for the next 2 days. This storm will eventually become an Extratropical Cyclone tomorrow evening or on Friday, May 13 [8PM MAY 11: 27.6N 129.4E @ 65kph...8AM MAY 12: 30.4N 133.5E @ 55kph]...8PM MAY 12: 33.3N 138.8E @ 55kph...8AM MAY 13: 36.1N 144.3E @ 55kph.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. AERE (BEBENG) is a Minimal Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...expected to weaken within the next 24 to 48 hours. AERE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
AERE's circulation remains slightly sheared with most of its rain-cloud convection to the east of the center. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: 
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - None. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along the CDO.(click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - still affecting Okinawa Islands but will start to move away and reach Naje Island later this afternoon or tonight. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across the Rest of Ryukyu Islands - where light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 25 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 100 mm (heavy) located to the South & East of AERE's center. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. (MONSOON TROUGH) INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms will be expected along these following affected areas: BICOL REGION, VISAYAS, MINDANAO & PALAWAN. Light to moderate SE or variable winds (not in excess of 30 kph) expected.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) WED 11 MAY POSITION: 24.9N 126.0E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W, AERE, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. AN 11/2154Z SSMIS
MW IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH CONVECTION ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION AND DRY AIR ENCOMPASSING
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
BECOMING MORE SUBDUED. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS AND PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY
SHIP REPORTS AND BUOYS INDICATING WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS. POSITION
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BASED ON A LARGE, EXPOSED LLCC AND RJTD RADAR
FIXES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 03W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE IN A REGION OF
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES TS 03W
IS BENEATH A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH, WHICH IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND
RESULTING IN A LACK OF CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STORM.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
(23-25 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)...(more)
>> AERE, meaning: A storm. Name contributed by: United States of America.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT JTWC / WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS AERE (BEBENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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