Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon SONGDA [CHEDENG]

for Friday, 27 May 2011 [7:14 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday May 26 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter, SMS and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on STY SONGDA (CHEDENG).

SONGDA (CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

SUPER TYPHOON SONGDA [CHEDENG/04W/1102]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 025
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 27 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #029/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)

Super Typhoon SONGDA (CHEDENG) continues to undergo an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC)...now passing close to the east of Batanes Group of Islands. Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) being enhanced by this howler - is bringing cloudy skies w/ some passing occasional rains, squalls & thunderstorms along Mindoro, SW Luzon, Metro Manila, Western Visayas, & Palawan.

Residents and visitors along the Extreme Northern Luzon and the Southern Islands of Japan (Okinawa-Ryukyus) should closely monitor the progress of SONGDA (CHEDENG).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri May 27 2011
Location of Eye: 20.0º N Lat 123.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 145 km (78 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 180 km (97 nm) ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 205 km (110 nm) NNE of Calayan Island
Distance 4: 250 km (135 nm) NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 480 km (260 nm) SSE of Hualien City, Taiwan
Distance 6: 510 km (275 nm) SSW of Ishigaki Island
Distance 7: 855 km (460 nm) SW of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph (130 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Yaeyama-Okinawa
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 300 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile new!
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 40 ft (12.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Fri May 27

FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)*

SONGDA (CHEDENG) is forecast to decay this evening and will then start to recurve towards the Southern Islands of Japan within the next 24-48 hours. Based on its potential track, SONGDA will leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow afternoon, Sat May 28 and pass close to the NW of Okinawa Island in the evening.

TOMORROW EARLY MORNING [SAT]: Moving North to NNE away from the Batanes Group as it weakens to below Super Typhoon strength...about 250 km NE of Basco, Batanes [2AM MAY 28: 21.9N 123.8E @ 220kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON [SAT]: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...downgraded to Category 3 as it accelerates rapidly towards the NE...about 230 km WSW of Okinawa City, Okinawa [2PM MAY 28: 25.2N 126.0E @ 195kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 2 as the system passes very close to Naje Island...about 80 km West of Naje Island [2AM MAY 29: 28.6N 129.0E @ 160kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Starts tranforming into an Extratropical (ET) - as it passes near the Southern Coast of Shikoku, Japan...downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon [2PM MAY 29: 31.7N 133.6E @ 120kph].

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 240 km/hr (130 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (CHEDENG) is an extremely powerful, Category 4 Super Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers (165 nautical miles). SONGDA is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 590 kilometers (320 nautical miles).

SONGDA's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* TO:

BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS: about 125 km East of Basco or 145 km East of Itbayat [ETA: between 6:00-8:00 PM Tonight].
OKINAWA ISLAND: about 60 km NE of Kadena AB...70 km NE of Naha...or 55 km ENE of Okinawa Cirt [ETA: between 8:00-10:00 PM JST Tomorrow Evening].

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Loses tropical characteristics...becomes Extratropical after passing to the SE of Tokyo in Honshu, Japan [2PM MAY 30: 35.7N 145.9E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

SONGDA's impressive & strong radial circulation continues to be observed on satellite imageries. Its eye continues to undergo an Eyewall-Replacement Cycle (ERC) (Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

30-KM. CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading across Northeastern Cagayan, Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands, Bashi Channel. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Balintang Channel, Taiwan, Yaeyama Island Chain, Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, Rest of Cagayan and other parts of Northern and Central Luzon. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 180 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 300 mm (high) near the center of SONGDA. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Cagayan, Isabela, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands, & Eastern-Southern Taiwan today. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon today. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with possible occasional rains w/ squalls can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN, MINDORO, WESTERN BICOL, ROMBLON, MARINDUQUE, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES including METRO MANILA, SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including SUBIC BAY. Light to moderate SW to Westerly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # THREE (3)
Now In Effect: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS

The above areas will experience stormy weather - where winds of 60-100 kph for #2; and more than 100 kph for #3 - will be expected tonight. Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: APAYAO, CAGAYAN & ISABELA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) FRI 27 MAY POSITION: 19.3N 123.4E.
*SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH
OF ISHIGAKIJIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A 16 NM DIAMETER CLOUD FILLED EYE WITH SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM ALL QUADRANTS.
STY 04W IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE,
EVIDENT IN A 270507Z 91 GHZ AMSRE MICROWAVE PASS, WHICH SHOWS AN
EXPANDING AND DECAYING OUTER EYE-WALL SURROUNDING A DEVELOPING INNER
EYE-WALL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND
MOTION BASED ON THE 27/0532Z PGTW EYE FIX AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 115 TO 130 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT STY SONGDA REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW, BOTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
EQUATORWARD. STY 04W IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO
TURN INCREASINGLY POLEWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE
ACCELERATING AND BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
36, BUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN JAPAN.
WBAR AND GFS ARE THE POLEWARD OUTLIERS INDICATING A TRACK OVER
SOUTHERN KYUSHU NEAR TAU 48. NOGAPS AND GFDN TRACK THE SYSTEM
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND OVER CENTRAL SHIKOKU NEAR TAU 48. JGSM AND EGRR
ARE AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE INDICATING A TRACK
SOUTH OF JAPAN AT TAU 48 AND THROUGH TAU 72. OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS SLOWLY TRENDED EQUATORWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
AND REMAINS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SLIGHTLY INSIDE MODEL CONSENSUS TO
ACCOUNT FOR KNOWN MODEL ERROR IN A RE-CURVE TYPE SCENARIO AND THE
OVERALL MODEL TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...(more)

>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
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LATEST WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-2 "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source:  Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY SONGDA (CHEDENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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