for Saturday, 21 May 2011 [7:40 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday May 21 2011):
This is to announce that Typhoon2000 is now in Twitter - you can follow us @ Twitter.com/Typhoon2k. Meanwhile, we are currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TS 04W (UNNAMED).
04W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 04W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 21 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #003/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
04W (UNNAMED) upgraded to Tropical Storm...now passing close to Yap and Ulithi Islands (Federal State of Micronesia).
Residents and visitors along the Micronesian islands of Yap, Ulithi and Palau should closely monitor the progress of 04W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat May 21 2011
Location of Center: 9.1º N Lat 138.5º E Lon [Relocated]
Distance 1: 60 km (33 nm) SE of Yap Is., FSM
Distance 2: 385 km (207 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 485 km (260 nm) WNW of Palau Is., FSM
Distance 4: 1430 km (772 nm) ESE of Surigao City, PH
Distance 5: 1625 km (878 nm) ESE of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Yap-Ulithi Islands
24hr Total Rainfall (near center): 700 mm (Extreme)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): 350 km (190 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Sat May 21
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
04W (UNNAMED) is expected to move WNW slowly for the next 2 days and intensify further while moving into the Philippine Sea [2PM MAY 21: 9.6N 137.8E @ 75kph...2AM MAY 22: 10.1N 136.6E @ 85kph]. This system will be nearing Typhoon strength (>118 km/hr) as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow afternoon or evening, May 22 [2PM MAY 22: 10.6N 135.3E @ 95kph...2AM MAY 23: 11.2N 133.8E @ 110kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. 04W (UNNAMED) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...expected to continue gaining strength within the next 2 days. 04W is a average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 350 kilometers (190 nautical miles). 
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon while tracking WNW across the Philippine Sea...about 725 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar [2AM MAY 24: 12.6N 131.3E @ 140kph]. WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded to a Category 2 Typhoon as it moves closer to the east coast of Bicol Region...about 475 km East of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM MAY 25: 13.5N 128.6E @ 165kph]. THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded to a Category 3 Typhoon w/ almost 200-km/hr winds, while passing to the northeast of Bicol Region...about 255 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM MAY 26: 15.0N 126.2E @ 195kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
04W's circulation has become slightly sheared, with most of its convective rainclouds displaced to the South and East of its Low-Level Circulation Center (LLCC) - as moderate northerly vertical wind shear (VWS) affects the system. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - N/A. (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - organizing...currently affecting Yap-Ulithi Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - currently spreading across most parts of the Caroline Islands including Western Micronesia - light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 700 mm (extreme) near the center of 04W. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. (MONSOON TROUGH) INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SE to variable winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will be expected.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 21 MAY POSITION: 9.2N 139.0E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. IR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE
CENTER DUE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-20
KNOTS. THE 20/12Z POSITION WAS RELOCATED ABOUT 95NM WEST FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION BASED ON A 201200Z METOPA IMAGE SHOWING A
DEFINED LLCC AS WELL AS THE 1223Z ASCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS. THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 25-30 KNOT ASCAT WINDS, BASED ON THE HIGHER
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30-35 KNOTS. TS 04W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TS 04W IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WNW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH JGSM INDICATING A SLIGHTLY MORE
POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 AND THE UKMO INDICATING A WESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AND IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO MARGINAL OUTFLOW
AND THE VWS BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE AFTER TAU 48 DUE
TO IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC...(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND/JTWC TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS 04W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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