for Wednesday, 11 May 2011 [7:45 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday May 10 2011):
Continuing issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TS AERE (BEBENG).
AERE (BEBENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM AERE [BEBENG/03W/1101]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 016
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 11 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #017/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm AERE (BEBENG) accelerating fast towards the Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands...will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this morning.
Residents and visitors along Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the progress of AERE (BEBENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed May 11 2011
Location of Center: 24.7º N Lat 125.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 165 km (90 nm) East of Ishigaki Island
Distance 2: 300 km (162 nm) SW of Okinawa Island
Distance 3: 425 km (230 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 615 km (332 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
CPA over Okinawa: 3PM-8PM Today
12-18hr Total Rainfall (near center): 130 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Wed May 11
AERE (BEBENG) is expected to maintain its strength and accelerate further NE-ward for the next 2 days - leaving the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this morning, and shall pass over or very close to Okinawa Island between 3-8PM today Japan Time as a decaying system. This storm will eventually become an Extratropical Cyclone on Friday, May 13 [2PM MAY 11: 25.7N 127.4E @ 65kph...2AM MAY 12: 28.3N 131.0E @ 55kph]...2PM MAY 12: 30.9N 135.8E @ 55kph...2AM MAY 13: 33.6N 141.4E @ 55kph.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. AERE (BEBENG) is a Minimal Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. AERE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
AERE's circulation remains slightly sheared as it tracks toward Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: 
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - None. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along the CDO.(click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - now starting to affect Naje and Okinawa Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across the Rest of Ryukyu Islands - where light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 130 mm (heavy) located to the South & East of AERE's center. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. (MONSOON TROUGH) INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms will be expected along these following affected areas: BICOL REGION, VISAYAS, MINDANAO & PALAWAN. Light to moderate SE or variable winds (not in excess of 30 kph) expected.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) WED 11 MAY POSITION: 23.3N 124.8E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SW OF
OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST. INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST OF TS 03W IS EVIDENT WITH A
DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 10/1443Z
TRMM 85H MICROWAVE (MW) IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH
A CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS TO
THE WEST OF TS 03W WITH AN AREA OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH. CURRENT INTENSITY (35 KNOTS) IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS DUE TO 35-40 KNOT WINDS
DEPICTED ON A 10/1234Z ASCAT PASS. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN IR AND APPARENT CENTER IN MW
IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 24, TS AERE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND
ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
48. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR, WHICH
UNREALISTICALLY TRACKS TC 03W NORTHWARD INTO HONSHU DESPITE STRONG
WESTERLIES IN THIS REGION. THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF CONSENSUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...(more)
>> AERE, meaning: A storm. Name contributed by: United States of America.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT JTWC / WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS AERE (BEBENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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