for Thursday, 26 May 2011 [7:30 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday May 25 2011):
Now issuing 3-hrly web, twitter, SMS and e-mail updates on TY SONGDA (CHEDENG).
SONGDA (CHEDENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON SONGDA [CHEDENG/04W/1102]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 020
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thu 26 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #023/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon SONGDA (CHEDENG) is now passing well to the east of Bicol Region while heading on a NNW track. Outer rain bands continues to spread across Bicol Region, Masbate, Polillo Islands, & Samar.
Residents and visitors along the Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region & Eastern Visayas should closely monitor the progress of SONGDA (CHEDENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu May 26 2011
Location of Eye: 14.5º N Lat 126.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 275 km (148 nm) ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 290 km (155 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 390 km (210 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 360 km (195 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 530 km (285 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 605 km (325 nm) East of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph (115 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph (140 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 ft (10.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6:00 AM PhT Thu May 26
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
SONGDA (CHEDENG) is expected to continue intensifying as it moves NNW to Northward across the Philippine Sea, east of Luzon for the next 2 days. The typhoon is likely to pass more or less 300 km to the East of Cagayan and the Batanes Group of Islands by tomorrow before heading towards the Southern Islands of Japan.
THIS AFTERNOON (THU): Moving away from the Central Philippine Sea, after passing some 250 km to the East of Catanduanes...still intensifying [2PM MAY 26: 15.3N 126.3E @ 220kph]. FRIDAY EARLY MORNING): Shall reach peak intensity of 230 kph (Near-Super Typhoon), while located to the east of Isabela or along the North Philippine Sea [2AM MAY 27: 17.1N 125.2E @ 230kph]. FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Still at near-Super Typhoon strength as it turn towards the north...about 335 km East of Calayan Island off the Balintang Channel [2PM MAY 27: 19.1N 124.7E @ 230kph]. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to decay as it recurves to the NE...passing well to the east of Taiwan...about 335 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [2AM MAY 28: 21.6N 125.0E @ 220kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 215 km/hr (115 knots) with higher gusts. SONGDA (CHEDENG) is now a Category 4 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles). SONGDA is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 590 kilometers (320 nautical miles). SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Okinawa Island after moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...accelerating towards the NE to ENE-ward...downgraded to Category 2 [2AM MAY 29: 26.8N 128.2E @ 160kph]. MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerating further ENE-ward while passing to the south of Southern Japan...becoming Extratropical [2AM MAY 30: 31.5N 135.6E @ 110kph]. TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Attains Extratropical status as it moves ENE-ward across the cooler seas of the NW Pacific [2AM MAY 31: 34.3N 146.5E @ 85kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
SONGDA's circulation has come more radial & symmetrical...cloud-filled eye continues to be seen on satellite imageries. Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - over water (Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - still over water...but brushing the coast of Catanduanes Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across the Bicol Region, Bondoc Peninsula, Masbate, Ticao-Burias Islands, & Eastern Visayas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 350 mm (high) near the center of SONGDA. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic]. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Bicol Region & Samar Provinces today. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon today. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional squalls, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN & PARTS OF VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW to Westerly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) 
In Effect: CATANDUANES, SORSOGON, ALBAY, CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, & SAMAR PROVINCES.
The above areas will experience stormy weather - where winds of 60-100 kph can be expected beginning today. Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
In Effect: MARINDUQUE, MASBATE, BURIAS IS., TICAO IS., QUEZON, POLILLO IS., CAGAYAN, ISABELA, AURORA, QUIRINO, NORTHERN LEYTE, & BILIRAN IS.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) THU 26 MAY POSITION: 13.8N 127.2E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RAGGED EYE AND A 251735Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 115
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE, HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST IS LIMITING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
FLOW. TY 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS AS AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CHINA, DIGS SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS
THE STEERING RIDGE. TY 04W SHOULD BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AFTER PASSING OKINAWA, JAPAN AND WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 96. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES DIFFERENCES IN TRANSLATION SPEED. THE ECMWF MODEL
IS SLOWER AND THE NOGAPS IS FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN THE INITIAL
72 HOURS, BUT THEN FASTER IN THE LATER TAUS WHEN SEVERAL MODELS LOSE
THE SYSTEM DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION....(more)
>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY SONGDA (CHEDENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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