for Saturday, 21 May 2011 [12:40 PM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday May 21 2011):
This is to announce that Typhoon2000 is now in Twitter - you can follow us @ Twitter.com/Typhoon2k. Meanwhile, we are currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TS 04W (UNNAMED).
04W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 21 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #004/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
04W (UNNAMED) downgraded temporarily to Tropical Depression due to unfavorable upper-level winds...continued on its slow-creeping track across Yap and Ulithi Islands.
Residents and visitors along the Micronesian islands of Yap, Ulithi and Palau should closely monitor the progress of 04W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sat May 21 2011
Location of Center: 8.9º N Lat 138.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 70 km (38 nm) SSE of Yap Is., FSM
Distance 2: 360 km (195 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 455 km (245 nm) ENE of Palau Is., FSM
Distance 4: 1410 km (760 nm) ESE of Surigao City, PH
Distance 5: 1610 km (870 nm) ESE of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Yap-Ulithi Islands
12-18hr Total Rainfall (near center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): 350 km (190 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Sat May 21
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
04W (UNNAMED) is likely to regain Tropical Storm status later tonight, as the moderate upper-level northerly winds (vertical wind shear) relaxes. This system is expected to turn WNW-ward for the next 1 to 2 days and intensify further while heading into the Philippine Sea [8PM MAY 21: 9.1N 137.0E @ 65kph...8AM MAY 22: 9.5N 135.5E @ 75kph]. It will then enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as a strong Tropical Storm tomorrow afternoon, May 22 and move across the warm Philippine Sea [8PM MAY 22: 9.9N 134.5E @ 95kph...8AM MAY 23: 10.4N 133.1E @ 110kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 04W (UNNAMED) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. TD 04W is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 350 kilometers (190 nautical miles). 
TUESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon while tracking NW'ly across the Philippine Sea...about 575 km East of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [8AM MAY 24: 11.5N 130.7E @ 140kph]. WEDNESDAY MORNING: Upgraded to a Category 2 Typhoon as it moves closer to the east coast of Bicol Region...about 465 km East of Sorsogon City [8AM MAY 25: 13.0N 128.3E @ 165kph]. THURSDAY MORNING: Upgraded to a Category 3 Typhoon w/ almost 200-km/hr winds, while passing to the northeast of Bicol Region...about 230 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes [8AM MAY 26: 15.0N 125.8E @ 195kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
04W's circulation remains slightly sheared, with most of its convective rainclouds displaced to the South and East of its Low-Level Circulation Center (LLCC) - as moderate northerly vertical wind shear (VWS) continues to affect the system. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - N/A. (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - organizing...currently affecting Yap-Ulithi Islands slightly. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - currently spreading across most parts of the Caroline Islands including Western Micronesia - light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 125 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) near the center of 04W. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. (MONSOON TROUGH) INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SE to variable winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will be expected.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SAT 21 MAY POSITION: 8.9N 138.5E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
AN ISOLATED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
THE LARGE AREA OF INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO SHEAR SOUTHWARD UNDER MODERATE NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS WEAKENED DIURNALLY OVER THE PAST 08
HOURS. THE SYSTEM WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TD BASED ON A NUMBER OF
FACTORS: RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATING 25-30 KNOT WINDS, SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP (45NM NORTHWEST) SHOWING ONLY 10-15 KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS, DVORAK ESTIMATES DECREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS, AND
THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING EVIDENT IN THE 2110Z SSMIS
37H IMAGE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS MARGINAL WITH 10-20 KNOTS OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW...(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND/JTWC TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 12-18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 04W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment