for Thursday, 12 May 2011 [6:45 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday May 11 2011):
This is to announce that Typhoon2000 is now in Twitter - you can follow us @ Twitter.com/Typhoon2k. Meanwhile, we now end the 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TS AERE (BEBENG) as it loses tropical characteristics.
AERE (BEBENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM AERE [BEBENG/03W/1101]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 019 **FINAL**
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thu 12 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #023/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm AERE (BEBENG) continues zooming towards the NE...starts losing its tropical characteristics. This system will become an Extratropical Cyclone within the next 06-12 hours.
*This is the Final Public Advisory on this system.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu May 12 2011
Location of Center: 30.8º N Lat 133.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 300 km (160 nm) South of Okinawa Island
Distance 2: 455 km (245 nm) NE of Naje Island
Distance 3: 315 km (170 nm) ESE of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 4: 775 km (418 nm) SW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 50 kph (28 kts)
Towards: South Coast of Honshu
12-18hr Total Rainfall (near center): 50 mm (Light-Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder Final TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Thu May 12
AERE (BEBENG) will continue accelerating towards the NE for the next 06-12 hours and become Extratropical while passing swiftly to the south of Japan. [2PM MAY 12: 33.1N 137.1E @ 65kph...2AM MAY 13: 36.2N 143.0E @ 65kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. AERE (BEBENG) is a weak Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...expected to lose tropical characteristics within 06-12 hours. AERE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
AERE's circulation remains slightly sheared with most of its rain-cloud convection to the east of the center. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: 
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - None. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along the CDO.(click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - loose & fragmented over water. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands and the southern portions of Kyushu, Japan - where light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 25 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 50 mm (light to moderate) located to the South & East of AERE's center. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. (MONSOON TROUGH) INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Sunny to cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms will be expected along these following affected areas: BICOL REGION, VISAYAS, MINDANAO & PALAWAN. Light to moderate SE or variable winds (not in excess of 30 kph) expected.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) THU 12 MAY POSITION: 29.8N 132.0E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) O3W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. AN 11/1715Z AMSR-E 89H MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
INDICATES A LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. TS AERE IS CURRENTLY
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN A REGION OF UNFAVORABLY LOW (20-23 DEGREES
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND UNFAVORABLY HIGH (35-45
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETE ET WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION...(more)
>> AERE, meaning: A storm. Name contributed by: United States of America.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT JTWC / WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS AERE (BEBENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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