for Friday, 20 May 2011 [6:05 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday May 20 2011):
This is to announce that Typhoon2000 is now in Twitter - you can follow us @ Twitter.com/Typhoon2k. Meanwhile, we now initializing the 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on the newly-formed TD 04W (UNNAMED) as it rapidly intensified.
04W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 20 May 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #001/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The rapidly developing disturbance (LPA) ESE of Yap Island has strengthened into Tropical Depression 04W (UNNAMED)...now threatens Yap and Ulithi Islands of the Federal State of Micronesia. This system is expected to become a Tropical Storm within the next 06-12 hours.
Residents and visitors along the Micronesian islands of Yap, Ulithi and Palau should closely monitor the progress of 04W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri May 20 2011
Location of Center: 8.3º N Lat 141.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 415 km (223 nm) ESE of Yap Is., FSM
Distance 2: 660 km (357 nm) SW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 735 km (400 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 1785 km (965 nm) ESE of Surigao City, PH
Distance 5: 1990 km (1075 nm) ESE of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Yap-Ulithi Islands
24hr Total Rainfall (near center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): 220 km (120 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0.0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Fri May 20
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
04W (UNNAMED) is expected to move West to WNW-ward slowly for the next 2 days and intensify...attaining Tropical Storm Status by early tomorrow morning [2AM MAY 21: 8.5N 141.1E @ 75kph]. This system is forecast to pass over or very close to Yap Island on Sunday morning (May 22) between 8-9AM Manila Time - as a strong Tropical Storm w/ projected wind speeds of 100-110 km/hr [2PM MAY 21: 8.8N 139.9E @ 95kph...2AM MAY 22: 9.2N 138.8E @ 100kph...2PM MAY 22: 9.7N 137.7E @ 110kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 04W (UNNAMED) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...expected to rapidly gain strength within 06-12 hours. AERE is an small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles). 
MONDAY AFTERNOON: About to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as a well-developed Typhoon (Category 1)...located about 75 km East of PAR or 1100 km East of Southern Samar, PH [2PM MAY 23: 11.0N 135.7E @ 140kph]. TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Within the PAR...cruising & intensifying further to a Category 2 Typhoon while moving over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea...about 945 km East of Northern Samar, PH [2PM MAY 24: 12.6N 134.0E @ 160kph]. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Shall be approaching Category 3 status as it continues to move over the Philippine Sea...about 850 km East of Northern Catanduanes, PH [2PM MAY 25: 14.3N 132.1E @ 175kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
04W's circulation has rapidly consolidated during the past 12 hours...currently a small-compact system. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - None. (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - still organizing...expected to reach Yap-Ulithi Islands on Sunday, May 22. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across the Caroline Islands...expected to reach Yap-Ulithi Islands Saturday through Sunday - light to moderate winds (<30 kph) will be expected along these bands. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (light to heavy) near the center of 04W.
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. (MONSOON TROUGH) INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Sunny to cloudy with scattered to widespread showers, rains & thunderstorms will be expected along these following affected areas: VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SE or variable winds (not in excess of 30 kph) expected.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) FRI 20 MAY POSITION: 8.3N 141.9E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES
INCLUDING A 200037Z TRMM PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 04W
IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS PROVIDING A
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE TD IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD, ENHANCED OUTFLOW AND LOWER VWS UNDER
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, FUELED BY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE VERY LIMITED
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS TRACK FORECAST...(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND/JTWC TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
**Not Yet Available
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 04W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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