Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KAEMI (GLENDA)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #10

Name: TYPHOON KAEMI [GLENDA/06W/0605]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 23 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SUN 23 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #020
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TYPHOON KAEMI (GLENDA) SLIGHTLY LOSES STRENGTH AS MODE-
RATE UPPER LEVEL WINDS (WIND SHEAR) CONTINUES TO AFFECT
ITS CIRCULATION...NOW MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS TAIWAN
WHILE ENHANCING THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINES.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: The typhoon is expected to move
NW'ly for the next 24 to 48 hours & shall make landfall
over Eastern Taiwan just south of Hualien City around
sunrise of Tuesday (July 25). KAEMI is expected to
weaken & be downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it
crosses the rugged terrain of Central Taiwan. The 3 to
4-day Long-Range Forecast shows KAEMI crossing Taiwan
Strait before making its 2nd landfall along Fujian
Province of China or in between the cities of Xiamen &
Fuzhou by Wednesday morning (July 26). The system shall
rapidly dissipate by July 27 while traversing the moun-
tainous terrain of China Mainland.

+ EFFECTS: KAEMI's circulation has shrunked slightly
and is located offshore or along the Northern Phili-
ppine Sea. No land areas is currently affected by the
typhoon's circulation. However, its Western Outer Bands
are forecast to reach Taiwan & the small island groups
of Calayan & Batanes tomorrow. Moderate to heavy rains
with gale-force winds of up to 60 km/hr may be expected
along the typhoon's outer bands. The coastal and beach-
front areas of the affected provinces may expect mode
rate to rough seas with dangerous surf & waves
reaching 3 to 4 feet today.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate SW Monsoon conti-
nues to prevail over Mindoro Island, Western Visayas
(particularly the Islands of Panay, Boracay, Guimaras &
Negros), Palawan and Western Mindanao. It is now starting
to affect Luzon, particularly the Western sections (inclu-
ding Metro Manila), with its rain-bearing clouds spreading
over the area. Cloudy weather conditions with possible
light to moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall & rough seas
can be expected over the affected areas today. Southwester-
ly winds of 20 to 40 km/hr may be expected along these
areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 23 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 18.2º N...LONGITUDE 127.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 835 KM (450 NM) NE OF METRO MANILA, PH
DISTANCE 2: 650 KM (350 NM) ENE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 660 KM (355 NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 958 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 28 FEET (8.5 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES-TAIWAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM SUN JULY 23
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - BATANES & CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, CAGAYAN &
ISABELA.

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 23 JULY: 19.2N 126.8E / 160-195 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 24 JULY: 20.4N 125.5E / 160-195 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 23 JULY POSITION: 17.9N 128.1E.
^THE STORM HAS SLOWED AND TRACKED MORE POLEWARD OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS AS MIDLATITUDE TROUGHING HAS BROKEN
DOWN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. TY KAEMI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
AND MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL TAIWAN BY 72 HOURS. WHILE
THE 8AM JULY 22 MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS DEPICTED A PAR-
TIAL EYE, THIS FEATURE QUICKLY FADED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF PERSISTENT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ONLY A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN AT BEST. NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED. INTERACTION
WITH TAIWAN WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN WEAKENING
BY 72 HOURS...(more info)

>> KAEMI {pronounced: gae~mi}, meaning: An ant. A very
   small insect that lives in highly organized groups.
   It often appears in Korean fairy tales as a symbol
   of diligence. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 23 JULY: 18.1N 127.9E / NW @ 15 KPH / 140 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh....noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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