Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon EWINIAR (ESTER) strengthens to Category 3... [Update #09]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #09

Name: TYPHOON EWINIAR [ESTER/04W/0603]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 04 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 04 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #017
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TYPHOON EWINIAR (ESTER) CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS NOW
CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE
SCALE...CIRCULATION EXPANDING ACROSS PHILIPPINE SEA AS IT
THREATENS OKINAWA-RYUKYU AREA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: EWINIAR is expected to intensify fur-
ther & continue tracking NW'ly across the Philippine Sea
for the next 24 to 48 hours. The 3 to 5-Day Advance Fore-
cast (July 6-8) remains the same - showing the system tur-
ning Northward, then recurving NE'ly - passing just to the
east of Okinawa, Japan around 12 AM Saturday, July 8
(approximately 150 km east of Naha, Okinawa).

+ EFFECTS: EWINIAR is currently not affecting any land or
islands at this moment. However, the outer (feeder) bands
is forecast to reach Okinawa-Ryukyu Area sometime Thursday
or Friday (July 6 or 7). The storm's outer bands is charac-
terize with passing moderate to heavy rains with moderate
to sometimes strong winds that could produce flying debris,
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along river
banks, low-lying areas and mountain slopes over the
affected island.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: None yet. However, this po-
werful typhoon is expected to enhance & strengthen the
Southwest (SW) Monsoon across the Philippines especially
the western sections beginning late Wednesday until week-
end (July 05-09). This monsoon system will bring cloudy
skies with winds of 30 to 60 km/hr, accompanied with light,
moderate to heavy rains. These rains may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides along river banks,
low-lying areas and mountain slopes of the affected areas.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Low Pressure Area (aka. Tro-
pical Disturbance) over Central Micronesia expanding as it
remains disorganize. The disturbance was located approxi-
mately 1,130 km SSE of Hagatna, Guam (4.5N 149.8E). It may
likely become a significant Tropical Cyclone within a day
or two. Stay tuned for more updates on this system. Click
here to view latest sat pic on the disturbance
(and EWINIAR).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 04 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 15.2º N...LONGITUDE 133.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 1,245 KM (672 NM) EAST OF CENTRAL LUZON, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 185 KM/HR (100 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 230 KM/HR (125 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 944 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 32 FEET (9.7 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY THREE (3)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: OKINAWA-RYUKYU AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM TUE JULY 04
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 04 JULY: 16.4N 132.3E / 215-260 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 05 JULY: 17.6N 131.2E / 220-270 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 04 JULY POSITION: 14.8N 133.5E.
^PERIPHERAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TY EWINIAR HAS
INTENSIFIED CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE NORTHERLY
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMA-
GERY REVEALS THAT OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SUBTROPI-
CAL RIDGE (STR) HAS BEGUN TO STEER THE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST & NORTHWEST...(more info)

>> EWINIAR {pronounced: ee~win~yar}, meaning: Chuuk
traditional storm God. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 04 JULY: 14.7N 133.5E / NW @ 17 KPH / 150 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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